KEC Intl, KPIL, Ahluwalia: Axis Securities’ top infra sector picks; sees up to 45% upside

India’s road infrastructure space may have hit a speed bump in Q2FY26, but Axis Securities believes the non-road infra segment is cruising on a stronger growth trajectory. In its latest sector review, the brokerage reiterated a positive stance on non-road infrastructure companies, backed by healthy order books and sustained government capex. Its top picks: KEC International, Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL) and Ahluwalia Contracts.

Axis Securities noted that road infra players delivered a weak quarter, missing estimates sharply. “Road infrastructure companies under our coverage reported revenue and EBITDA declines of 13 per cent/17 per cent, respectively, against our expectation of 9 per cent/1 per cent,” the brokerage said, attributing the miss to slow execution, delayed appointed dates and an extended monsoon.

However, the broader investment climate remains supportive. With Union Budget 2025-26 raising FY26 capex to Rs 11.2 lakh crore, Axis has turned cautiously optimistic on roads and remains firmly bullish on non-road infra over the medium to long term.

KEC International

Axis Securities has assigned a target price of Rs 1,030, implying up to 45 per cent upside from current levels. The brokerage highlighted KEC’s healthy order backlog of Rs 39,325 crore as of September 30, 2025, which ensures strong revenue visibility.

The company is also benefiting from an encouraging tender pipeline worth about Rs 1,80,000 crore and improving margins led by high-value international T&D projects. Despite labour constraints and near-term challenges, Axis expects margin strength to drive bottom-line outperformance.

Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL)

For KPIL, Axis has set a target price of Rs 1,475, signalling a 20 per cent upside. The confidence stems from a robust order book of Rs 64,682 crore, coupled with an expanding opportunity landscape.

The brokerage expects the T&D business to be a major growth engine, supported by a tender pipeline exceeding Rs 1,50,000 crore over the next 12–18 months. KPIL’s revenue is projected to clock a 20 per cent CAGR between FY25 and FY27, driven by broad-based growth across segments.

Ahluwalia Contracts

Axis remains positive on Ahluwalia Contracts with a target price of Rs 1,085, implying a 7 per cent upside. The company posted a sharp jump in EBITDA margins to 10.9 per cent in Q2FY26, up from 7.3 per cent a year ago, supported by better project execution.

With an order book of Rs 18,057 crore, revenue visibility is strong for the next 2–2.5 years. The brokerage also flagged the firm’s strategy to maintain 50–60 per cent of its order book in private sector projects, where it sees stronger scalability and improved profitability.