NSDL up 56% from IPO but 12% off highs; where does the stock go from here?

Shares of National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) advanced 0.93 per cent on Thursday to close at Rs 1,248.55. Despite the gain, the recently-listed stock is still 12.38 per cent below its record high of Rs 1,425 hit on August 11, 2025. That said, it continues to trade 56.07 per cent above its initial public offering (IPO) price of Rs 800.

In Q1 FY26 (June 2025 quarter), the company posted a 15.16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 89.62 crore, up from Rs 77.82 crore in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, revenue from operations slipped 7.49 per cent to Rs 312.02 crore versus Rs 337.29 crore a year earlier, while total expenses eased to Rs 228.03 crore.

Stock-wise, analysts observe that NSDL is consolidating in the Rs 1,200–1,300 range post-listing. While one recommends holding for the long term and fresh buying on dips, a few others caution that a fall below Rs 1,215–1,220 may lead to further downside.

Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities, noted that post its listing, NSDL has been consolidating within the Rs 1,200–1,300 range. He advised medium- to long-term investors to continue holding, while fresh entrants may consider buying on dips with a longer investment horizon.

Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza, pointed out that the stock had surged to nearly Rs 1,400 earlier this month before entering a consolidation and profit-booking phase. At present, it is trading near Rs 1,260, aligning with short-term exponential moving average (EMA) support at Rs 1,254. He recommended a buy on a breakout above Rs 1,300 with targets of Rs 1,360–1,400 and a stop loss at Rs 1,220. On the downside, weakness below Rs 1,220 could present shorting opportunities.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager – Technical Research at Anand Rathi, identified support at Rs 1,215 and resistance at Rs 1,300. He expects the stock to remain in the Rs 1,200–1,350 range in the near term, with potential to move towards Rs 1,350 if it breaks past Rs 1,300.

On BSE, around 34.72 lakh shares changed hands today. The figure was lower than the two-week average volume of 72.52 lakh shares. Turnover on the counter came at Rs 432.49 crore, commanding a market capitalisation (m-cap) of Rs 24,971 crore.