NTPC, NTPC Green Energy: Target prices for 2 stocks post Q2 results

ICICI Securities has suggested a 'Buy' rating on NTPC and an 'Add' rating on NTPC Green Energy (NGEL) post the September quarter results of the two companies. On NTPC,  ICICI Securities suggested a target price of Rs 439, valuing the thermal business at 15 times FY27E EPS and NGEL (RE portfolio) stake (adjusted and discounted by 20 per cent). As power demand continues to grow at 5–6 per cent per year, India may need to add more thermal capacity to meet the medium-term demand, before storage solutions become economically viable. NTPC is likely to add to this thermal capacity, ICICI Securitis said.

On NTPC Green Energy, the brokerage said the company has limited track record of developing green assets. It delivered 3GW of operating assets at a capex to Ebitda of 10 times, implying a subpar return. That said, NGEL has the lowest capital cost. "We are building in an improvement in capex to Ebitda ratio of the portfolio from 10 times to 8.5 times for under-construction portfolio. We value the asset with EV to Ebitda of 16x – implying a doubling of the asset from 16GW to 48GW in the next eight years. The 16x EV to Ebitda multiple factors in – 1) NGEL’s strong sponsor; 2) lower cost of debt compared to peers; 3) NGEL’s strong track record of execution and large scale of its locked-in portfolio," it said.

This brokerage suggested a target price of Rs 120 on NTPC Green Energy.

NTPC

ICICI Securities said NTPC has set ambitious expansion targets over the next decade. Earlier this year, the company raised its capacity target to 149GW by FY32 (against 130GW earlier). Now, it is planning to treble its existing capacity to 244GW by FY37. The capacity addition is expected to be largely driven by renewables and thermal expansion. It is planning to achieve 60GW RE capacity by FY32 and take it further to 120–130GW by FY37. NTPC is also expanding its footprint into green hydrogen and its derivatives, energy storage and nuclear energy (targeting 30GW nuclear capacity by FY47). However, execution of planned projects shall be key for the company. The NTPC group added 4.4GW capacity in H1FY26 across thermal, renewables and pumped hydro storage; has also reduced its FY26 target addition from 11.8GW to 9.1GW. It reported a steady Q2FY26 results with consolidated Ebitda rising 6 per cent YoY, while adjusted profit was up 3 per cent.

NTPC Green

ICICI Securities said NTPC Green Energy added 1.65GW to its operational capacity till Oct’25 YTD, bringing its operational capacity to 7.6GW (6.1GW stake-adjusted). It estimated a run-rate Ebitda of Rs 3,700 crore for these assets.

"Under-construction assets stand at 15.6 GW. We estimate locked-in Ebitda for the portfolio at Rs 12,800 crore. The pace of capacity addition has been soft in the last five quarters and the management has cut FY26 capacity addition guidance to 5.4GW (vs. 6GW earlier). CUF was down 140bps YoY due to extended monsoon and curtailment (also a result of monsoon)," it said.