Q4 impact: IndusInd Bank shares jump 6%; RBL, Axis Bank tank 5% each - Here’s why | Target prices

Shares of IndusInd Bank Ltd climbed 6 per cent, while RBL Bank Ltd and AxisBank declined 5 per cent, as the three stocks reacted to their March quarter earnings. IndusInd Bank reported a Q4 profit beat, driven by lower provisioning, whereas RBL Bank missed analyst estimates due to softer margins and fee income, along with sustained stress in the credit card segment. In the case of Axis Bank, a miss on operating profit hurt sentiment. Analysts said one-off tax benefit gain were used to shore up provision buffer by the lender. IndusInd Bank shares rose 6.12 per cent to hit a high of Rs 899.90 on NSE. RBL Bank shares fell 4.76 per cent to Rs 306.10. Axis Bank declined 4.83 per cent to Rs 1,299.90 apiece. 

IndusInd Bank share price targets
ICICI Securities, India's third largest broking firm in terms of active clients, said the worst is likely over for IndusInd Bank, with potentially better growth and credit costs ahead. Yet the path to loan growth normalisation appears arduous,  given mix change at IndusInd Bank, foggy macro for vehicle/SME segments and competitive deposits mobilisation environment. For now, the brokerage suggested a target of Rs 900 on the stock.
Antique Stock Broking maintained 'HOLD' rating on the stock with a revised target of Rs 915 from Rs 930. Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities maintained a ‘HOLD’ rating on IndusInd Bank with a target price of Rs 899 against Rs 807 earlier. Nuvama Institutional Equities said it believes earnings and credit costs may improve for IndusInd Bank, but the trajectory towards normalised loan growth remains challenging. "The stock currently trades at 1x FY27E P/BV; retain ‘HOLD’ with an unchanged target of Rs 900/1x FY27E BV," it said.

HDFC Securities, the sixth-largest Indian broker in terms of active clients in FY26, said IndusInd Bank's Q4 results beat its estimates on the back of lower-than-expected provisioning, even as the bank continued to de-grow credit book and improve its credit quality marginally. The growth was sub-par, it noted. HDFC Securities cited multiple handicaps around a sub-par deposit franchise, inadequate provisioning buffers, and stress in its unsecured book that still needs fixing to maintained 'Reduce' and a target Rs 760.

RBL Bank share price targets
ICICI Securities said the lender's reported strong growth but net interest margin (NIM) contracted sharply. Credit card stress may remain elevated in H1FY27, it warned. It suggested a revised target of Rs 390 on the stock. 

Elara Securities said while strategic repair is underway, the current valuation of 1 times FY28E P/BV, following a 12 per cent outperformance in the past three months, largely captures the recent progress as well as residual risks. This brokerage wants greater consistency in earnings and return ratios before turning more constructive. 

"Our FY27/FY28 earnings broadly remains unchanged, and we introduce FY29 earnings estimate. We retain Accumulate, with a target of Rs 345, based on 1.1x FY28E P/BV, as we roll forward to March 2028E," it said.

MOFSL said RBL Bank has continued to pursue calibrated expansion in the unsecured segment. Additionally, the capital infusion from Emirates NBD is expected to support stronger credit growth, it said.

"On asset quality, slippages are expected to remain elevated in 1HFY27, primarily driven by credit cards, before moderating thereafter. We thus estimate RoA to recover to 1.3 per cent by FY28E. Reiterate BUY with a target of Rs 370 (1.3x Sep’27E ABV)," MOFSL said.

Axis Bank share price targets 
Antique Stock Broking said the 4QFY26 performance was mixed, as the improvement in asset quality and a sharp decline in credit costs was offset by weaker operating performance due to lower other income and higher opex. Improved growth outlook and normalising asset quality trends were the key positives, it said.

"We maintain a BUY rating with a target price of Rs 1,535 for RoA expectation of 1.6 per cent and RoE of 14-15 per cent over FY27/28," it said.

Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities said Axis Bank’s March quarter performance was lower than its expectation at the NII and PPOP levels by 3.3 per cent and 17.7 per cent, respectively. The numbers met its expectations on profit level, supported by tax benefits. It remained positive on the bank due to the recent pickup in business growth, expectations of seeing expansion from 1QFY27, and attractive valuations. 

"We maintain a ‘BUY’ rating on Axis Bank with a revised target price of Rs1,597 (valued at 1.8x Mar-28E ABV plus subsidiary value per share of Rs92) as against Rs1,500 earlier. Our target multiple is at a 5 per cent discount to the past 5-year average multiple of 1.9x," it said.

MOFSL said Axis Bank reported an inline quarter, with standard asset provisions, largely offset by a tax reversal. The bank reiterated its through-cycle NIM guidance of 3.8 per cent, it said.

Credit costs declined, supported by easing stress in the unsecured portfolio, which also drove improved traction in higher-yielding assets along with lower interest reversals. 

"Business growth remained robust, aided by a pickup in deposits, resulting in a moderation in the CD ratio. Asset quality improved sequentially, with a dip in both GNPA and NNPA ratios. However, the evolving West Asia situation remains a key near-term monitorable," MOFSL said as it retained 'Neutral' with a target of Rs 1,475.