Sensex, Nifty outlook for Monday, March 2: What will happen in stock market amid Iran, Israel, US, Anthropic, OpenAI news – Trading strategy & more

Domestic equity markets are likely to open with a cautious sentiment on edge amid geopolitical tensions, with the Sensex and Nifty having declined over 1.5% each this week. 

At close on Friday, the Sensex plunged 961.42 points, or 1.17%, to settle at 81,287.19. The Nifty tumbled 317.90 points, or 1.25%, to finish at 25,178.65. 

However, early indicators suggest a potential breather for the bulls. Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange rose 90 points, or 0.36%, to trade at 25,375, hinting at a positive opening on Monday.

US–Iran tensions

With reports of Israel on Saturday announced it had carried out what it described as a pre-emptive strike against Iran. This move may escalate tensions and further undermine already fragile diplomatic efforts to resolve Tehran’s long-running nuclear dispute with Western powers.

“Near-term direction will hinge largely on developments surrounding US–Iran geopolitical tensions, which remain a prominent global risk factor and could swiftly alter risk appetite,” said Hariprasad K, a SEBI-registered research analyst and founder of Livelong Wealth.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, pointed out that rising US–Iran tensions have kept crude oil prices firm amid concerns over potential supply disruptions. For India, a major oil importer, these elevated energy prices add another macroeconomic strain to an already fragile risk backdrop, he said.

“President Trump’s 10–15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, effective February 24, injected fresh uncertainty for export-driven sectors including textiles, pharmaceuticals, gems and machinery, though the impact appears more contained than initially feared,” Ponmudi added.

OpenAI, IT, Anthropic

Meanwhile, persistent weakness in US technology stocks continues to weigh heavily on Indian IT counters. Investor unease is building around artificial intelligence-led disruption and what it means for traditional outsourcing models. 

According to Hariprasad, the IT sector has already corrected more than 20% through February, and sentiment is likely to remain guarded until earnings visibility improves.

Sam Altman announced that OpenAI has sealed a deal with the US Department of War (DoW) to integrate its artificial intelligence models into the department’s classified internal network.

Meanwhile, for AI firm Anthropic, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday ordering all federal agencies to halt the use of Anthropic’s AI products, including its assistant Claude.

Data-heavy week & shifted expiry

On the domestic front, the new month brings a heavy slate of macroeconomic data. Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that investors will be closely tracking monthly auto sales numbers, industrial production data, and the HSBC Manufacturing PMI.

“India’s economy is likely to expand around 8.1% in Q3 FY26 under the revised series. Corporate earnings outlook also remains encouraging, with estimates suggesting Indian companies could deliver 8–10% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 FY26, supported by resilient rural demand and a gradual recovery in urban consumption,” Mishra said.

Traders will also need to navigate altered expiry on Monday. With markets closed on Tuesday, March 3, for Holi, the weekly Nifty expiry shifts to Monday, March 2, compressing the trading window. “Such calendar adjustments often amplify short-term positioning moves, potentially keeping volatility elevated,” Hariprasad said.

Key levels

Nifty 50: Analysts said the index has slipped below key short-term moving averages, confirming emerging weakness. Ajit Mishra pointed out that the Nifty surrendered the 25,400 support zone and moved closer to the gap area around 25,100. While Hariprasad K viewed the 25,000 mark as a "critical psychological threshold". 

“On the upside, 25,350–25,500 now acts as immediate resistance, and a sustained move above this band is needed for stabilization,” Ponmudi said.

Sensex: “Sensex has tested the 81,200–81,000 zone, with further downside risk if volatility persists. Immediate resistance is positioned at 82,000–82,500,” Ponmudi said.

Mishra recommended that traders avoid aggressive leverage and focus on fundamentally strong large-cap companies and sectors with relatively stable earnings visibility, such as banking, healthcare, metals, pharma, and energy.