Sensex, Nifty this week: From Interim Budget to Fed, factors that may drive Dalal Street

Indian markets ended the week with a cut of one per cent each ahead of Fed interest rate decision and Interim Budget 2024-25. Next week will also see auto sales numbers, Q3 results, fiscal deficit and infrastructure output data keeping the markets buzzing along with the Fed move on rates. 

There will be sector specific moves based on Budget announcements. Parliament’s Budget session starts from January 31. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Interim Budget in Lok Sabha on February 1.  

Quarterly results: State Bank of India, Tata Motors, ITC, Adani Green Energy, Bajaj Finance, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Larsen and Toubro, Voltas, Ambuja Cements, Dabur India, Maruti Suzuki India, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Adani Enterprises, and  Adani Ports,  are among the major names to report their numbers in the coming week.  

Bajaj Finserv, Vodafone Idea, Marico, NTPC, Piramal Enterprises, Bajaj Holdings and Investment, Jindal Steel and Power, Raymond, Rites, and Titan Company are some of the other names who will declare quarterly numbers next week.     

Economic data: Next week will also mark the start of the new month and lot of economic data will be released along with the auto sales numbers. Government Budget Value and infrastructure output data will be released on January 31. Also, market participants will be eyeing HSBC Manufacturing PMI on February 1, and Foreign Exchange Reserves numbers will be released on February 2.             

US market data: On the global front from the US, traders will be eyeing Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on January 29, JOLTs Job Openings, Dallas Fed Services Index, on January 30, Chicago PMI on January 31, Fed Interest Rate Decision, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, on February 1, Unemployment Rate, Government Payrolls, and Manufacturing Payrolls, which will be out  on February 02.          

Technical outlook:
According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at the LKP Securities, with Nifty remaining highly volatile, the sentiment may continue to lean towards the bears as the Nifty struggled to surpass the 21500 mark, where call writers held substantial positions.
“Looking ahead, the trend is likely to remain sideways, fluctuating within the range of 21300 and 21500. Nevertheless, a decisive breakthrough above 21500 could propel the index towards 21700/22000 in the short term" De said.  

Bank Nifty: Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities said, the bulls successfully defended the crucial support level of 44500, establishing it as a critical line of defense. "If the index sustains above this support, a potential pullback rally towards the resistance levels of 45500/46000 is anticipated in the near term. However, a breach below this support on a closing basis could lead to further downside pressure, with the index targeting levels around 44000-43500".