Silver on fire: Analyst sets price target at Rs 1,50,000 per kg amid supply crunch

Silver has been on a glittering run in 2025, and analysts believe the rally is far from over. Take this: the price of white metal has soared more than 44% to nearly Rs 1.24 lakh on September 8, 2025, from Rs 85,851 on December 31, 2024.
 
The metal now looks to touch Rs 1,50,000, and the reasons behind the target are structural, according to Jahol Prajapati, Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities. Unlike past cycles where silver was largely viewed as a safe-haven asset, its role is being redefined by industrial demand.
 
In August 2025, the US officially added silver to its Critical Minerals List, recognising its central role in solar panels, EV batteries, 5G networks, and medical devices. At the same time, institutional flows are strengthening: Saudi Arabia’s central bank has invested in silver ETFs, following Russia’s earlier accumulation. According to reports, the Saudi Central Bank has invested around $40.4 million in silver-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during the second quarter of 2025.
 
On the supply side, constraints remain tight. Global demand has outpaced supply for four straight years, with a 148.9-million-ounce deficit in 2024 and another 117.6-million-ounce shortfall expected in 2025. “With new mine development limited, deficits are here to stay,” Prajapati said.
 
In the international market, the metal was hovering around $41 per ounce on September 9, its highest level since 2011, supported by falling real yields and a weaker dollar after soft US jobs data boosted Fed cut expectations.
 
According to Axis Securities, lower yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals, adding momentum to silver. The macro tailwind coincides with a tight physical market, where rising industrial demand meets constrained supply. Strong demand is driven by solar, electric vehicles, and electronics, while supply growth remains limited, as most silver is mined as a byproduct.
 
“China’s solar cell exports surged over 70% in the first half of the year, led by shipments to India, further strengthening near-term physical offtake,” the brokerage said in a report.