Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel: Q3 preview, target prices for 3 metal stocks

Nomura on Thursday said JSW Steel Ltd and Tata Steel Ltd are likely to perform better than Jindal Steel Ltd on a sequential basis in Q3FY26, as start-up costs and weaker product mix may drive a sharper decline in Ebitda per tonne for Jindal Steel. The brokerage expects the broader Indian steel sector to report moderate volume growth but face pressure on realisations and margins during the quarter.

“We expect the India steel industry to report a 5 to 6 per cent YoY improvement in domestic volumes in Q3FY26. However, declining steel prices, rising coking coal costs and company-specific operational factors are likely to lead to sequential pressure on realisations and Ebitda per tonne across most producers,” Nomura said.

Nomura said domestic steel volumes are expected to rise 5-6 per cent YoY in Q3FY26. Average domestic hot rolled coil prices declined Rs 2,400 per tonne quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) during the quarter, while average domestic rebar prices fell Rs 700 per tonne QoQ. 

Among companies under its coverage, Nomura expects JSW Steel standalone and Tata Steel standalone to report around Rs 1,900 to Rs 2,000 per tonne sequential decline in realisations. In contrast, Jindal Steel standalone is expected to see a steeper decline of around Rs 3,000 per tonne, largely due to a higher proportion of slag and semi-finished products in its sales mix.

On the cost side, Nomura said the benefit from lower domestic iron ore prices, which declined Rs 280 per tonne QoQ, was likely to be more than offset by higher coking coal prices, which rose by about $16 per tonne QoQ in Q3FY26. As a result, the brokerage expects Tata Steel and JSW Steel to report an Ebitda per tonne decline of around Rs 1,700 to Rs 2,000 sequentially, while Jindal Steel was seen reporting a sharper sequential Ebitda per tonne decline of about Rs 3,000 per tonne.

Tata Steel Q3 results preview

Nomura said Tata Steel’s India operations are expected to report a 12 per cent YoY increase in volumes in Q3FY26, while its European business is likely to see a 9 per cent YoY decline in volumes. On a consolidated basis, volumes were expected to rise to about 8.2 million tonnes, up 6 per cent YoY. Domestic steel realisations are expected to decline Rs 1,750 per tonne QoQ, while European realisations are seen falling by about EUR30 per tonne, in line with management guidance.

On costs, Nomura expects raw material costs per tonne in Europe to decline by about EUR10 per tonne, while consolidated operating costs were expected to fall 6 per cent sequentially. As a result, Tata Steel’s standalone business is expected to report Ebitda of about Rs 12,900 per tonne in Q3, down Rs 1,780 per tonne QoQ. The European business was expected to slip into an Ebitda loss of about EUR10 per tonne, compared with a gain of EUR7 per tonne in Q2. On a consolidated basis, Nomura expected Ebitda of about Rs 7,800 crore in Q3, compared with around Rs 8,900 crore in Q2. The brokerage maintained its Buy rating on Tata Steel with a target price of Rs 215.

JSW Steel Q3 results preview

Nomura said JSW Steel standalone volumes were expected to decline 7 per cent YoY in Q3FY26, largely due to the shutdown of blast furnace 3 at Vijayanagar for around 150 days starting September 2025. On a consolidated basis, volumes are expected to rise to about 7.6 million tonnes, up 14 per cent YoY. Steel realisations are expected to decline  Rs 2,000 per tonne QoQ, tracking moderation in domestic hot rolled coil prices.

On the cost front, Nomura expected JSW Steel to face around $5 per tonne higher coking coal costs, which would offset benefits from lower iron ore consumption. As a result, consolidated Ebitda per tonne is expected to come in at around Rs 8,500 in Q3, down about Rs 2,200 per tonne QoQ. Nomura maintained its 'Buy' rating on JSW Steel with a target price of Rs 1,300.

Jindal Steel Q3 results preview

Nomura said Jindal Steel is expected to report a 15 per cent YoY increase in volumes to about 2.2 million tonnes in Q3FY26. However, realisations are expected to decline Rs 3,000 per tonne sequentially due to a higher share of slabs and semi-finished products as the newly commissioned blast furnace ramped up.

“Jindal Steel’s realisations are likely to see a significant sequential decline in Q3FY26, as the ramp-up of the newly commissioned blast furnace leads to a higher proportion of slabs and semis in the product mix, while start-up costs are expected to offset any benefit from operating leverage,” Nomura said.

Nomura expects start-up costs related to the blast furnace to negate operating leverage benefits, resulting in consolidated Ebitda per tonne of around Rs 7,400 in Q3, down about Rs 3,000 per tonne QoQ. The brokerage maintained its Buy rating on Jindal Steel with a target price of Rs 1,150.