TCS Q1 results: $7-10 billion deal wins, BSNL impact, dividend & more

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (TCS), India’s largest IT services company by sales, is set to announce its June quarter results on Thursday, July 10. Investors will closely track key metrics such as deal wins, management commentary on client demand, the revenue and margin impact from the scaled down BSNL deal, performance across major verticals, and any dividend declaration.

Dalal Street analysts are largely expecting the Tata group firm to log up to 3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit for the June quarter on up to 4 per cent YoY rise in sales. Margin is seen falling for TCS, but marginally. Deal wins are seen anywhere between $7 billion and $10 billion -- some seasonal softness is likely sequentially.  

Equirus Securities sees revenue for the IT giant dropping 0.4 per cent  in constant currency (CC terms). It sees recurring PAT at Rs 12,368 crore (up 2.7 per cent YoY) and sales at Rs 65,061 crore (up 3.9 per cent YoY).Tepid growth is largely due to expected ramp down in BSNL deal and some softness in sales growth in international markets. 
 
Axis Securities estimated TCS' Q1 net profit at Rs 12,352 crore and sales at Rs 64,301 crore. It pegs Ebit margin at 24.8 per cent. Among segments, demand outlook, especially for the retail and manufacturing verticals, margin levers and commentary on client feedback regarding spending, would be key to watch.

According to Antique Stock Broking, TCS is likely to post a 0.6 per cent decline in constant currency (CC) revenue for the quarter. However, dollar revenue is expected to rise 1 per cent sequentially, aided by a 160 basis points tailwind from cross-currency movements. Despite this currency benefit, EBIT margin is projected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter at 24.2 per cent. The brokerage expects deal bookings to come in at around $9–10 billion.

In terms of profitability, Antique sees TCS reporting a net profit of Rs 12,454 crore, up 3.5 per cent year-on-year, on revenue of Rs 65,123 crore — a 4 per cent YoY growth.

Nuvama Institutional Equities offers a more cautious view, pegging net profit at Rs 12,214 crore, up 1.5 per cent YoY. The brokerage expects revenue to rise 3.2 per cent YoY to Rs 64,600 crore.

Meanwhile, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities has forecast deal wins between $7–8 billion for the quarter, considerably lower than Antique’s estimate. The brokerage expects EBIT margin to decline 40 basis points QoQ to 23.8 per cent, citing headwinds from lower utilization, higher visa costs, talent-related investments, and strained operating leverage. Nirmal Bang estimates adjusted profit at Rs 11,728 crore, reflecting a 3 per cent decline compared to the same period last year.

Kotak Institutional Equities also anticipates a revenue dip, forecasting a 0.4 per cent decline in CC terms — a fall largely driven by the BSNL deal taper. According to Kotak, the revenue contribution from BSNL is expected to drop $57 million sequentially to $157 million. Growth in developed markets is seen as flat to marginally positive, at just 0.3 per cent QoQ. The brokerage believes EBIT margins will come under pressure due to lack of scale benefit, even though wage hikes have been deferred.

Kotak noted that investors will closely track commentary around demand weakness — particularly in manufacturing and retail verticals — and any indication of client insourcing impacting growth. Outlook in key verticals like financial services and healthcare will also be scrutinized. Additionally, factors such as the ramp-up of global capability centres (GCCs), enterprise GenAI adoption, and its potential deflationary impact on traditional IT spend are expected to draw attention.

Centrum Broking, in its preview note, painted the most bearish picture, estimating a 2.8 per cent QoQ decline in CC revenue. It attributed the decline primarily to the phasing out of the BSNL engagement, though it expects a 180 basis points tailwind from currency. EBIT margin is likely to contract by 19 basis points, with quarterly profit seen at Rs 11,862 crore — down 1.5 per cent YoY.

Dividend in Focus

In a regulatory filing, TCS said that if an interim dividend is declared, it will be paid to shareholders whose names appear in the company’s register or as beneficial owners in the records of depositories as on Wednesday, July 16, 2025 — the designated record date.

As the results day nears, analysts and investors alike will be watching for management commentary on deal pipeline visibility, demand trends across geographies and sectors, and margin levers in an increasingly cost-conscious IT spending environment.