Trump–Xi trade talks on October 30: What should stock investors expect?

The US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are set to meet on October 30 in South Korea, where a trade deal could be reached. Asian markets have been pretty positive and so are Wall Street stocks. This is after top trade negotiators of the US and China concluded their two-day trade talks in Kuala Lumpur, the fifth round of such talks this year, with both sides signaling a détente for the latest tensions. 
Nomura said the results are pretty much in line with what it described two weeks ago, saying both sides, after testing the other’s boundaries, would eventually make concessions. At that time, the foreign brokerage had anticipated a decent chance of a Xi-Trump in-person meeting during the APEC summit in South Korea at end October. But the brokerage warned that no deal will be “complete”.

"Although President Trump is targeting a complete deal during his meeting with President Xi this Thursday morning, we believe the market’s expectations should be tempered, as both sides might only agree upon a narrow range of issues. The latest threatened 100 per cent US tariff will almost surely not be implemented. The 90-day truce for the US reciprocal tariff could be extended again," it said.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments said there are indications of a possible agreement between US and China on tariffs and if there is a breakthrough in the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday, that will give another leg up to the markets globally where the leading indexes like S&P 500, Nikkei and Kospi are at record highs.

"A near-term positive for the market is the expectation that the Fed would cut rates in the FOMC meet on Wednesday since US CPI inflation (3% YoY) is not high as feared," he said.

For now,  Nifty is likely to trade with a positive bias, driven by optimism around the upcoming Trump–Xi summit on October 30, said  Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Securities.

In an earlier note, Nomura noted that constructive US-China trade talks set up a positive tone for equities, especially HK/China stocks. The meeting is risk-positive as it increases the likelihood of an extension of the truce or even the possibility of some sort of trade deal.