Waaree, Premier Energies shares drop again! What's spooking the stocks?

Shares of Waaree Energies Ltd on Monday fell for the third straight session, while those of Premier Energies Ltd  declined for the second day in row amid concerns over a new antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigation. Kotak Institutional Equities has highlighted potential risks, especially for Waaree Energies Ltd, as the investigation has been reportedly petitioned by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, targeting solar module imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos. Kotak finds the domestically-exposed Premier Energies less at risk.

Waaree Energies was trading 1.48 per cent lower at Rs 3,075.50. The stock was down 2.62 per cent on Friday and 2.57 per cent on Thursday. Premier Energies was trading 1.32 per cent lower at Rs 1,044.40, after falling 2.03 per cent on Friday.

The petitioners have identified significant dumping margins, with Indian manufacturers facing a margin of 213.96%. Such investigations could disrupt export operations that were expected to revive following the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and recent AD/CVD measures on ASEAN countries.

Kotak noted, "Following the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and the recent AD/CVD imposed on ASEAN countries, there were expectations of some revival in exports, which may now get disrupted."

Waaree Energies, with 57% of its order book exposed to the US, is considered particularly vulnerable. Kotak stated, "Within our coverage, we see Waaree, with 57% of order book exposed to the US, being impacted. We find domestically exposed Premier Energies less at risk."

The US Department of Commerce had earlier imposed duties ranging from 15% to 3,000% on solar imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The recent investigation could lead to further duties and affect market dynamics.

The US is moving towards self-sufficiency in solar modules, reaching a capacity of approximately 52 GWdc. This shift has led to a 42% decline in imports during the first five months of the year.

Kotak remarked, "US moving toward self-sufficiency in modules; cells to be more gradual."

Waaree Energies is deemed the most at risk among Kotak's covered companies due to its significant US market exposure, which constitutes 20% of its revenue.

Kotak added, "Any acceleration in short-term demand due to the impact of Big Beautiful Bill...could get impacted due to these investigations." The presence of local US manufacturing capacity could mitigate some adverse effects.

Adani Enterprises and Vikram Solar are among other major exporters from India, potentially affected by these developments.

Kotak maintains its financial projections for Premier Energies and Waaree Energies, stating, "Kotak Institutiponal Equities retains our estimates and FV for Premier and Waaree Energies."

Despite the ongoing investigation, Kotak has not altered its FY2026-28 forecasts for these companies, retaining a "SELL" rating with a fair value of Rs 900 for Premier and Rs 2,600 for Waaree.

These developments underscore the challenges faced by Indian solar manufacturers in maintaining their competitive edge in the US market amidst evolving trade policies.