Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 148 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are headed for the gap-down on Friday as optimism over upbeat commentary on the economy in the government's economic survey is offset by a weak rupee, persistent foreign fund outflows and higher oil prices. Investors await the union budget scheduled to be tabled in the parliament by the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 147.80 points, or 0.58 per cent, down at 25,388.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Friday. Stocks were volatile in early Asian trading on Friday. Hang Seng tumbled 1.7 per cent, while Nikkei was down nearly a per cent. KOSPI also edged lower.

Market sentiment was supported by the Economic Survey for FY26, providing a constructive macro backdrop ahead of the Union Budget, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Overall, markets are expected to remain range-bound, with stock-specific action likely to dominate in the run-up to the Budget."

The US stocks ended mixed on Thursday as investors were rattled by the latest earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to eke out a tiny gain, rising 55.96 points, ‍or 0.11 per cent, to 49,071.56. The S&P 500 ended the day down 9.02 points, or 0.13 per cent, at 6,969.01. The Nasdaq Composite finished down 172.33 points, or 0.72 per cent, at 23,685.12.

The US dollar index was last up 0.3 per cent at 96.441 after Trump said he would unveil his pick to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. Bitcoin was last down 2 per cent at $82,684.51, while ether was last down 1.7 per cent at $2,768.01.

WTI crude ​was last down 0.7 per cent at $64.95 as oil markets weighed geopolitical risks, after Trump on Thursday signed ‍an executive order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba.

Market sentiment stayed cautious as investors awaited the upcoming Union Budget. Global uncertainty, mixed corporate earnings and continued foreign institutional selling weighed on risk appetite, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should avoid getting carried away by the recovery and remain selective, focusing on performing sectors."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 393.97 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,638.76 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
The market is holding an uptrend continuation formation on intraday charts and it has formed a bullish candle on daily charts, which supports further uptrend from the current levels. For trend-following traders, now 25,300/82,200 and 25,150/81,700 would act as key support zones, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"As long as the market is trading above these levels, the pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, 25,500/82,800 would be the immediate hurdle for the bulls. A successful breakout above 25,500/82,800 could push the market up to 25,600-25,650/83,100-83,300. On the flip side, below 25,150/81,700, the uptrend would become vulnerable," he said.

Nifty50 is showing demand near supports. The rebound formed a bullish hammer after testing the 200-day EMA, signaling possible reversal. Resistance lies at 25,550–25,600, support at 25,250–25,300. RSI at 43.07 is rising, indicating improving momentum on the daily time frame, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank signals improving price structure. Momentum indicators are supportive, with RSI witnessing a bullish crossover, indicating a pickup in buying strength, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "The overall setup reflects renewed strength in the index; however, volatility may remain elevated ahead of the Union Budget announcement."

Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle with a higher high and higher low, indicating continuation of the positive bias. In the near term, it is likely to consolidate within the 58,500–60,400 range, said Bajaj Broking. "A decisive move above the recent high of 60,400 could trigger further upside towards the 61,500 zone. On the downside, immediate support is seen near 59,000."