Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 151 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian shares are likely to open on a weaker note on Monday, pressured by renewed concerns over a potential global trade war and mixed earnings from blue-chip companies. At the domestic front, traders will react to Q3 earnings of index heavyweights, while at the global levels tariff threats on eight European Union members February 1 will be a major key.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 151 points, or 0.59 per cent, up at 25,600.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Stock markets slid in Asia on Monday after President Donald Trump threatened to slap extra tariffs on eight European nations. Nikkei and Hang Seng were down a per cent each, while KOSPI inched higher.

US stocks ended nearly flat on Friday in a choppy session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 83.11 points, ⁠or 0.17 per cent, to 49,359.33, the S&P 500 lost 4.46 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 6,940.01 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 14.63 points, or 0.06 per cent, to ‍23,515.39.

Gold and silver both jumped to all-time highs, while oil flatlined on concerns about what an all-out trade war between the US and Europe could mean for global growth and demand. Gold proved more of a safe harbour, rising 1.7 per cent to $4,673 an ounce, while silver climbed 3 per cent to $94. Brent was little changed at $64.19 a barrel, while US crude rose to $59.52 a barrel.

The dollar ​fell on Monday as investors unnerved by US President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland ‌ piled into the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc, in a broad risk-averse move across markets. The dollar index eased slightly to 99.18.

Given the mixed domestic and global backdrop and persistent foreign fund outflows, it is essential to manage leverage and position sizes prudently, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should focus on quality large-cap and larger midcap stocks, particularly in sectors with stronger earnings visibility and institutional interest," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,346.13 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,935.31 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs withdrew over Rs 22,530 crore from Indian equities so far this month so far.

FII selling trend may continue until some positive triggers for a market rally happens. The AI trade which dominated stock market trends in 2025 is continuing in early 2026 also. A reversal of this trend might happen sometime in 2026, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.


Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
"The market bounced back sharply due to oversold conditions. We are of the view that the current market formation is volatile and non-directional, and the short-term activity indicating a non-directional trend is likely to continue in the near future," said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the downside, 25,500/83,000 and 25,400/82,700 would act as key support zones, while the daily SMA at 25,950/84,600 and the 20-day SMA at 26,000/84,800 would be crucial resistance levels for the bulls," it said.

The overall chart structure suggests a wait-and-watch approach among participants. Immediate support is placed at 25,500-25,470 and a decisive break below this level could drag the index toward 25,300, said Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services. "Resistance is seen at 25900, and sustained strength may open the path for 26,100," he said.

"Immediate resistance is placed at 25,875, followed by 26,000 and 26,100 levels. On the downside, support is seen at 25,600 and 25,450. A breakdown below 25,300 could intensify downside pressure and accelerate corrective moves," said Choice Broking. "Given the prevailing volatility, a cautious approach with strict stop-loss discipline is advised."


Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank remains in a well-defined uptrend, comfortably trading above its key moving averages. Momentum indicators also remain supportive, with the daily RSI holding above the 60 mark and trending higher, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"From a level's perspective, the 60,400–60,500 zone is expected to emerge as a key resistance area. A strong close above 60,500 may open the door for a swift move toward 61,200, with further upside potential toward 62,000 in the near term. On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 59,300–59,400 band," he adds.

Nifty Bank formed a large bullish candle with both upper and lower shadows, indicating heightened volatility and renewed buying interest. The index rebounded decisively from its 21-day EMA and closed above the key psychological level of 60,000, reflecting improving sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

"Going forward, follow-through strength could drive the index toward the 60,400 level in the near term. However, we expect Bank Nifty to remain in a consolidation phase with positive bias within the 58,700–60,400 range. A decisive breakout above this band or a breakdown below it will determine the next directional trend," it said.