Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 21 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are poised to open on a muted note on Wednesday following a three-session losing streak driven by profit-booking at record highs, while focus shifts to the Reserve Bank of India's rate decision and commentary on Friday, expecting that robust economic growth might prompt the central bank to keep interest rates steady.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 21 points, or 0.08 per cent, down at 26,192, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asia shares were on steadier footing on Wednesday. Nikkei and KOSPI rose more than a per cent each, while Hang Seng was marginally down.

Sentiment remained fragile as the rupee hit a record low of 89.92 against the US dollar, driven by strong dollar demand from corporates, importers and persistent FPI outflows, said Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital. "Profit-booking in private banks weighed on the indices, overshadowing yesterday’s record intraday highs. A supportive stance could revive sentiment."

US Stocks rose on Tuesday as traders recovered some of the ground lost in the previous session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 185.13 points, or 0.39 per cent, to 47,474.46. The S&P 500 climbed 0.25 per cent to 6,829.37, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.59 per cent to 23,413.67.

The dollar was becalmed on Wednesday, as other assets hogged the limelight, though investors looking ahead to 2026 were starting to position for US rate cuts to weigh on the greenback. On the other hand, Bitcoin reclaimed the $90,000 level

In commodities, oil prices were nursing losses after falling in the previous session, as markets weighed faltering Russia-Ukraine peace hopes against fears of oversupply. Brent crude futures were up 0.06 per cent to $62.49 a barrel, while US crude rose 0.07 per cent to $58.69 per barrel. Spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at $4,216.13 an ounce.

The decline was primarily driven by a sharp contraction in the IIP data, weakness in the rupee, and caution ahead of the upcoming US Fed and RBI policy decisions later in the week, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should continue to adopt a stock-specific trading approach, while also considering selective shorts in weaker pockets as a hedge."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,642.30 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 4,645.94 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if the index dismisses the 26,000/85,000 level. If the market manages to trade above this level, it could bounce back to 26,100-26,175/85,500-85,800, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "On the flip side, below 26,000/85,000, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If it falls below this level, the market could slip to 25,850–25,800/84,500-84,300."

In terms of key levels, the subzone of 26,000-25,950 is expected to provide support against potential declines, while the critical support level, marked by a bullish candle, is around 25,850, said Osho Krishan, Chief Manager -Technical and Derivative research at Angel One. "The overall market outlook remains bullish, with declines likely presenting favorable opportunities for buyers."
 

Nifty Bank index

Going ahead, the 20-day EMA zone of 58,950-58,850 will act as important support for the index. On the upside, the zone of 59,600-59,700 will act as a crucial hurdle for Nifty Bank, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Any sustainable move above the 59700 level will lead to a sharp upside rally upto the 60,200 level."

Bank Nifty has formed a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow signaling extension of the corrective decline for the second session in a row. We expect the index to consolidate and form a base in the range of 58,500-60,100 in the coming sessions ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome, said Bajaj Broking.

"The entire up move of the last 2 months is well channelled signaling sustained demand at elevated levels. Key support is placed at 58,300-58,600 levels being the confluence of the last two weeks lows and recent breakout area. Holding above the support area will keep the short-term bias positive," it said.