Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 6 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are expected to open flat on Thursday following three consecutive sessions of losses, while foreign investors turning buyers and a rebound in the rupee will likely aid sentiment. Concerns over foreign flows and the rupee's slide to record lows due to a delay in progress over the India-US trade deal is looming on the sentiments.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 5.80 points, or 0.02 per cent, down at 25,892, hinting at a flat start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian shares fell on Thursday as the tech sector took a beating on renewed angst about AI spending. Nikkei and KOSPI tanked more than a per cent each, while Hang Seng crept lower.

Early weakness could be seen in domestic stocks on the back of overnight slump in US gauges and subsequent fall in other Asian indices, said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP of Research at Mehta Equities. Bears continue to dictate momentum. FIIs turned net buyers in and rupee roared back on RBI's support, caution remains the watchword, he said.

Wall Street indices closed lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq sinking to three-week lows as nagging worries about the AI stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 228.29 points, or 0.47 per cent, to 47,885.97. The S&P 500 lost 78.83 points, or 1.16 per cent, to 6,721.43. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 418.14 points, or 1.81 per cent, to 22,693.32.

The dollar held gains against its major counterparts on Thursday as markets positioned for central bank decisions in Britain, Europe and Japan. The dollar index was little changed at 98.35. Spot gold prices slipped 0.3 per cent to $4,330 per ounce, while silver also eased 0.2 per cent to $66.17 per ounce but remained just a touch below a record high of $66.88 hit on Wednesday.

Oil prices gained for a second day after Trump's announcement of the Venezuela blockade with most exports from the country remaining on hold. US crude rose 1.7 per cent to $56.91 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were up 1.5 per cent at $60.62 a barrel.

Choppy price action is likely to persist amid ongoing currency swings and mixed global signals, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants are advised to adopt a stock-specific approach, keep position sizes in check, and remain mindful of risk management in the current volatile environment," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,171.71 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 768.94 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The support is seen around the 25,750-25,700 zone, coinciding with 50 DEMA and lows from the previous week, which has facilitated a rebound, said Osho Krishan, Chief Manager of Technical and Derivative research at Angel One.

"A breakdown below the same could disrupt the near-term outlook. On the other hand, the 20 DEMA at 25,950, followed by 26,000 represents a sturdy hurdle and a sustained move beyond this could only provide a breather to market participants," he adds.

The intraday market sentiment is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if the level of 25,775/84,300 is broken below. If that happens, the market could retest the levels of 25,700-25,650/84,000-83,800, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "On the flip side, if the market moves above 25,920/84,900, the sentiment could improve. Above this level, the market could rise to 26,000-26,050/85,200-85,400."
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank on expected lines is seen consolidating and forming a base in the range of 58,500-60,100, said Bajaj Broking. "We expect it to extend the current consolidation in the coming sessions. Key short-term support is placed at 58,200-58,600 levels being the confluence of the recent low and the major breakout area. On the higher side a move above 59,500 will open further upside towards the all-time high of 60,100".

58,600-58,500 will act as important support for Nifty Bank. This zone which acted as a resistance earlier, can now act as a support, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Any sustainable move below the 58,500 will lead to further correction upto the 58,000 level in the short term. While on the upside, the zone of 59,200-59,300 will act as an important hurdle."