Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 800 pts, market stare at meltdown; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to slide on Monday after oil prices surged nearly 20 per cent in early trade to their highest since July 2022, as the widening US-Israeli ​war with Iran stoked fears of tighter supplies and prolonged disruption through the ‌Strait of Hormuz. As the world's third-largest crude importer, India, faces renewed inflation risks.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 792.70 points, or 3.23 per cent, down at 23,753, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian shares slipped on Monday as the inflationary pulse from surging ​oil prices threatened to raise living costs. KOSPI tanked more than 8 per cent, Nikkei tanked over 7 per cent. Hang Seng tumbled over 3 per cent.

Markets remained cautious amid the ongoing US–Israel conflict with Iran, with participants closely monitoring developments, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Developments in West Asia and their implications for global energy supply will remain key monitorables for markets, alongside movements in crude prices and broader global risk sentiment."

Wall Street's three main indexes closed down ​on Friday amid a setback in the US labor market and a spike in US oil ‌prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.95 per cent ​to 47,501.55 points. The S&P 500 lost 1.33 per cent to 6,740.00 points. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.59 per cent to 22,387.68.

Oil prices surged about 20 per cent on Monday, hitting their highest since July 2022, as the expanding US-Israeli war with Iran ‌ led some major Middle Eastern oil producers to cut supplies and on fears of prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz choke point. Brent crude futures ⁠rose as much as $18.35, or 19.8 per cent, to $111.04 a barrel.

Gold fell 2.4 per cent to $5,047 ​an ounce , with dealers speculating that investors were having to book profits made on the metal's long climb to cover losses elsewhere. The safe-haven US dollar took another leg ​higher on Monday, rising to a three‑month peak, while the Indian rupee and government bonds are expected to remain under pressure this week.

Given the heightened geopolitical risks, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, and continued FII outflows, investors should adopt a cautious and disciplined approach in the near term, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should prioritise capital preservation, maintain strict stop-loss levels, and avoid aggressive leverage amid rising volatility. Selective buying opportunities may emerge in select sectors."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 6,030.38 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 6,971.51 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs have pulled out Rs 21,000 crore from Indian equities in just four sessions of March 2026.

Uncertainty around Middle East conflict, steady decline in the market, the vulnerability of the Indian economy to sharp crude spike and the sharp depreciation of the rupee contributed to the sustained FII selling in the cash market, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. "FPIs are unlikely to return to the market as buyers until there is some clarity."
 

Sensex & Nifty outlook

We are of the view  that the short-term market texture is volatile; hence, level-based trading would be an ideal strategy for traders. On the downside, 24,300/78,800 would act as an immediate support zone for traders. Below 24,300/78,800, the market could retest levels of 24,000/77,900, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"Further downside may also continue, which could drag the index to 23,900/77,500. On the flip side, 24,500/79,500 would be the immediate resistance zone for traders. If the market succeeds in trading above 24,500/79,500, then the pullback move could continue till 24,800-24,850/80,400-80,600," he said.

Nifty is taking support near 24300 but remains volatile. The 24,900–25,000 range is expected to act as an immediate supply zone, as selling pressure may emerge if it attempts a recovery, said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart. "On the downside, 24,300 remains the first key support and if it slips below this level, 23,800 will be next important support area."

Nifty formed a strong bearish candle on the weekly chart, signaling dominance of sellers. Nifty also closed below its 50-week EMA, suggesting weakening medium-term momentum. In the final trading session, the index erased gains made earlier in the week, indicating persistent selling pressure at higher levels, said Choice Broking.

"From a levels perspective, 24,700 is the immediate resistance, followed by 25,000 and 25,150. On the downside, key supports are placed at 24,300 and 24,000, while a break below 23,800 could accelerate further downside pressure. Traders should maintain a cautious approach with strict risk management amid ongoing volatility," it adds.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

The immediate support for Nifty Bank is placed in the 57,400–57,300 zone, coinciding with the 200-Day EMA, said Sudeep Shah - Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Nifty Bank extending its weakness towards 56,900, followed by 56,500 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 58,200–58,300 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance."

Nifty Bank formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and lower low signaling continuation of the corrective trend. Index in the process closed below last month low highlighting downward bias. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues and escalating geo-political tension, said Bajaj Broking.

"Index sustaining below 58,000 levels will open further downside towards 57,000-56,600 levels in the coming weeks being the confluence of the 52 weeks EMA and the key retracement of the previous up move. On the higher side 59,000 is likely to act as immediate resistance sustaining below the same will keep the bias down," it said.