'More noise, not substance': Author on whether Trump's H-1B rules will impact Indian IT companies

Navroop Singh, author of The Great Reset and co-author of The New Global Order, on Monday said that the Trump administration's latest move to raise the fee for H-1B visas to $100,000 (₹88 lakh) and a short implementation deadline of September 21. Singh said that the move was "more noise, no substance" for the Indian IT firms. 

"The new H-1B rules look disruptive at first glance, but for Indian IT companies, the impact is marginal. Existing employees and their visa renewals are unaffected, and the real shift will play out in how firms recalibrate their delivery models," he wrote in a long post on X (formerly Twitter). 

He said that even though the number of H-1B visa applications will fall, it will accelerate a pivot towards offshoring, outsourcing, and the expansion of the global capability centres (GCCs) in India.

"By FY27, this evolution could actually prove value accretive. Combined with AI-driven productivity gains, the cost per employee will fall, cushioning margins for industry leaders like TCS and Infosys."

Singh emphasised that although the policy has been framed as a political move to appease the MAGA base ahead of the 2026 mid-term elections, it is unlikely to disrupt US tech companies such as Amazon and Microsoft, which rely on India's cost arbitrage. This is because the World Trade Organisation's (WTO) GATS framework exempts services from tariffs. 

In Navroop Singh's words, "In practice, it’s a “least disruptive strike” on Indian IT loud enough to create headlines, but not strong enough to break the ecosystem. "

He explained that by exerting pressure on Indian business elites, such as Ambani and Adani, and now the IT sector, the US aims to leverage economic influence to seek trade concessions from New Delhi in agriculture and dairy. 

The Great Reset author further explained that despite all this, the US cannot meaningfully decouple from the Indian IT sector. "Big Tech Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, IBM, and Intel has already locked in billions through GCCs and outsourcing contracts. Their symbiotic relationship with Indian talent is too deep to unwind."

He said that in the long run, India will emerge stronger by retaining its skilled talent at home, growing its offshore delivery base and building a massive talent reservoir that the US will ultimately miss out on. "For Indian IT, the so-called crackdown may, ironically, prove to be a competitive advantage."

Over 70% of H-1B visas go to Indian tech professionals. In FY2025 (as of June 30), Amazon led approvals with 10,044, followed by TCS (5,505), Microsoft (5,189), Meta (5,123), Apple (4,202), and Google (4,181). Infosys (2,004), LTIMindtree (1,807), and HCL America (1,728) also featured in the top 20, as per the USCIS website.