Any deal in Paris unlikely to keep global temperature rise in check: Arunabha Ghosh

Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, tells BT's Sarika Malhotra that India's leadership of the International Solar Alliance is an example of the country setting the agenda for action on climate change.

BT: At the Paris talks, PM Modi spoke extensively about national commitments being consistent with the space carbon space nations occupy. How were his comments taken at the meet by the developed world?

Ghosh: At the outset of COP21, French President Francois Hollande had reiterated that any climate deal needed to be "universal, differentiated and binding", with richer countries contributing more than poorer ones. While some developed nations have not been as forthcoming as President Hollande, they are cognizant of the stand taken by developing nations such as India. Countries need to start thinking right now about allocating carbon space based on principles of historical responsibility and economic capabilities. India, with its ambitious renewable energy goals, has already committed to higher mitigation than its fair share, in effect freeing up carbon space for other developing countries.

BT:  What is CoP21 expected to achieve and what will India's role be?

Ghosh: India has understood that concrete results can be achieved if the focus were on domestic measures for clean energy, energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, low-carbon agriculture, better building design, etc. with emissions reductions as co-benefits. India has already stated that irrespective of what comes out of the Paris talks, the actions as stated in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) would be continued domestically. COP21 may not achieve a legally binding agreement between countries, but may see a consensus on periodic reviews of targets and may see the possibility of plurilateral agreements if not global. India's leadership of the International Solar Alliance is an example of the country setting the agenda for action on climate change.

BT: Compared to previous talks, how is CoP21 expected to play out?

Ghosh: There is a strong possibility that a new climate deal will be announced later this week at COP21, with all major developed and developing nations on board. The concern remains whether the deal would be ambitious enough to keep global temperature rise in check, below 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. CEEW research finds that the global emissions gap (comparing INDCs against a 2 degrees Celsius pathway) is a mammoth 7-10.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) in 2030, a big shortfall in global effort. In order to keep global temperature rise to under 2 degrees Celsius, global emissions will need to peak in 2030 (at around 36 GtCO2eq), decline significantly by 2050 (to 24 GtCO2eq), and go into negative territory by 2075.

Whether you take renewable energy or fossil fuels, the developed world still continues on a pathway that raises the risk of climate change for the whole world.

BT: What are the main issues of contention for negotiators?

Ghosh: One of the key issues for negotiators, especially from developing countries like India, is how little global carbon space will remain for the rest of the world when the largest historical emitters continue emitting greenhouse gases. According to our analysis, at least 28 per cent of the total 'carbon space' of 1,000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) left for the world between 2015 and 2100 would be cornered by China (168 GtCO2eq), the EU (50 GtCO2eq) and the US (70 GtCO2eq) before 2030.The developed world needs to vacate the carbon space to accommodate the development of nations such as India.

Another major issue of contention is the reluctance of developed countries to accept 'Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR)' as the fundamental principle of any agreement. Contributions must be complementary, efficiently contribute to reducing the cost of clean development solutions, benefit developing countries, and differentiated in a way that is consistent with climate justice. Differentiation is still necessary in intended effort, outcomes, financial contributions, technology, monitoring, review and compliance.

BT: Do you see a consensus emerging, given the difference between the developed and the developing world?

Ghosh: There is no doubt a desire among the vast majority of countries represented at COP21 to secure a deal. As they say, "a lot rides on Paris". Differences certainly exist between developed and developing nations. The sticking points are really on finance, technology and intellectual property, and review and verification of the country actions. India's emphasis on differentiation has often been misconstrued as an absence of strong commitment to counter and adapt to climate change. India's targets, as articulated in its INDC, commit to actions disproportionately greater than those submitted by wealthier and more polluting countries and regions. Differentiation must be operationalised, not abandoned.