2026 fresh rally: Silver up 13% in the new year, gold up 85% year-on-year: What lies ahead from here

Gold and silver have begun 2026 with remarkable momentum, extending a rally that has already redefined the precious metals market. Silver is up 13% in just the first days of the year, while gold has surged nearly 85% over the past 12 months — gains that underscore how strongly investors are gravitating toward safe-haven assets amid rising global uncertainty. With geopolitical tensions escalating and confidence in key institutions under pressure, bullion is once again at the centre of portfolio strategies worldwide.

In domestic markets, the trend remains firmly intact. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold February futures opened marginally lower at Rs 1,41,731 per 10 grams on Tuesday after hitting lifetime highs a day earlier. Silver, however, continued to edge higher, with March futures trading near Rs 2,69,369 per kilogram. The modest pullback in gold reflected profit-booking rather than any shift in sentiment, as both metals remain close to record levels.

Internationally, gold briefly crossed the $4,600-an-ounce mark before easing slightly, while silver pushed past $86, reinforcing the strength of the rally. According to Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions, the surge reflects a powerful convergence of political, institutional and geopolitical risks. “Gold and silver surged to new all-time highs as investors rushed toward safe-haven assets. The rally was driven by rising concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, escalating geopolitical tensions, and renewed trade-related uncertainty,” he said.

Geopolitical risks

Market nerves were further rattled after reports that US federal prosecutors threatened action against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over comments made to Congress regarding a building renovation project. Powell has described the move as a “pretext” to pressure the central bank into cutting interest rates — a development that has raised fresh concerns about the autonomy of the world’s most influential monetary authority. Any perception of political interference in central banking tends to weaken confidence in fiat currencies, a dynamic that traditionally benefits gold and silver.

Geopolitical risks continue to add fuel to the rally. The United States has stepped up its involvement in Venezuela, while President Donald Trump has warned of possible military action amid unrest in Iran. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rising tensions between China and Japan, and renewed insistence by the White House on acquiring Greenland have only deepened global unease. Adding to this, Trump has warned that any country doing business with Iran could face a 25% penalty on all US trade. US officials have also confirmed that the President will be briefed on potential responses to Iran, ranging from sanctions and cyber measures to military options, keeping global risk sentiment fragile and supportive for precious metals.

Gold futures

The scale of the rally is striking in domestic terms as well. Gold futures for February expiry recently touched Rs 1,42,340 per 10 grams, marking an increase of more than 85% from levels seen at the start of 2025. Silver futures surged to nearly Rs 2.7 lakh per kilogram, translating into gains of over 200% in just a year — a performance that places silver among the best-performing assets globally.

From a technical standpoint, analysts see room for the rally to extend. Kothari noted that gold has decisively broken above its earlier resistance near $4,570, opening the door to higher targets. “The next key levels are $4,745–4,750, and potentially $4,966–4,970 if momentum sustains,” he said.

For silver, Fibonacci projections suggest upside levels near $88 and $93 in the coming weeks, while the $70 zone is seen as a strong support base.

Still, market veterans caution that investors should temper enthusiasm with discipline. While the long-term case for holding gold and silver as portfolio hedges remains compelling, the extraordinary gains of the past year are unlikely to be repeated at the same pace. At current elevated levels, volatility is likely to rise, and sharp corrections cannot be ruled out if geopolitical or policy risks ease.

For retail investors, the message is clear: precious metals may continue to play a vital role in portfolio protection, but the next phase of the rally will demand a more strategic approach. In a world where uncertainty is no longer episodic but structural, gold and silver may remain relevant — yet navigating what lies ahead will require patience, perspective and prudent allocation rather than pure momentum chasing.