Gold, silver 2026 trade setup: Silver jumps Rs 9,000, gold near Rs 1.36 lakh — what investors should do next

Gold and silver prices kicked off 2026 on a strong note, rebounding sharply in the domestic futures market as firm spot demand and a softer US dollar lifted sentiment. The rally builds on the powerful momentum seen through 2025, reinforcing the role of precious metals as both portfolio hedges and strategic long-term assets.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for February 5, 2026, opened Rs 1,195 higher at Rs 1.36 lakh per 10 grams, compared with the previous close of Rs 1.35 lakh. Prices held on to most of the gains through the session, with the contract last trading around Rs 1.36 lakh, up Rs 795 or nearly 0.6%.

Buying interest was also visible in longer-dated contracts. Gold futures for April 2026 rose Rs 721, or 0.52%, to trade near Rs 1.40 lakh per 10 grams, supported by expectations of a favourable global macro backdrop, including easing monetary conditions, sustained central bank purchases and persistent geopolitical risks.

Silver, however, clearly outperformed gold. MCX silver futures opened with a sharp upside gap at Rs 2,39,041 per kg and surged to an intraday high of Rs 2,43,443 per kg, tracking strength in global COMEX silver prices. The March 5, 2026, silver contract jumped over 3% intraday and was last trading around Rs 2.42 lakh per kg, up more than Rs 6,100 or 2.6% in a single session.

The renewed strength reflects more than short-term trading enthusiasm. The rally across precious metals in 2025 marked deeper structural shifts in the global economy. Gold prices rose nearly 62% last year, while silver posted a historic gain of around 140%, driven by two dominant trends — a steady move by central banks to diversify away from the US dollar, and rising inflationary pressures eroding the real value of fiat currencies.

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said bullion prices continue to draw strength from expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut. “Gold traded positive with gains of over Rs 1,000, settling near Rs 1,36,900 in MCX, while Comex gold surged by around $70. The strength in bullion prices is supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, which continues to keep the broader trend positive,” he said.

However, Trivedi cautioned that volatility has increased. “Recent sessions have been marked by sharp volatility as profit booking emerges from higher levels, partly triggered by increased margin requirements,” he added. According to him, gold is likely to trade in a wide range of Rs 1,34,000–Rs 1,40,000 in the near term, with upcoming US economic data expected to drive fresh price swings.

What lies ahead

The outlook for gold in 2026 remains constructive. Analysts expect prices to extend gains amid continued central bank buying, a dovish bias from the US Federal Reserve and lingering global uncertainty. According to ING’s Commodities Outlook 2026, gold prices could average $4,325 per ounce this year.

“Central banks are still buying, trade tensions remain elevated, geopolitical risks persist, and ETF holdings continue to expand while expectations of further Fed rate cuts intensify,” the report noted.

Central bank demand has been particularly strong. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, central banks purchased an estimated 220 tonnes of gold, up 28% from the previous quarter. Countries such as Poland, China and Kazakhstan have remained active buyers, reflecting a broader effort to reduce exposure to assets vulnerable to sanctions and geopolitical disruptions.

Investor appetite has also rebounded through gold-backed exchange-traded funds. ING estimates ETF investors added 222 tonnes of gold in recent months, pushing global holdings close to their November 2020 all-time high and tightening market balances.

Silver’s outlook is similarly supportive. Persistent supply deficits, combined with robust industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles and electronics, continue to underpin prices. The silver market is expected to face its fifth consecutive year of supply shortfall in 2026.

Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said silver’s broader trend remains firmly positive despite recent volatility. “Despite the near-term pressure, the longer-term bullish framework remains intact. Prices are finding initial support near the rising channel and the 20-day EMA around Rs 2,08,994, with deeper declines continuing to attract accumulation interest. A sustained rebound above Rs 2,36,000 could trigger fresh upside toward Rs 2,45,000 to Rs 2,60,000 over the medium term. The broader trend continues to favour accumulation on dips,” he said.

For investors, the message is clear: while sharp rallies call for disciplined positioning, the structural case for precious metals — gold as a macro hedge and silver as a hybrid industrial-investment asset — remains intact in 2026.