Silver at $100, gold at $5,000? Why experts think the milestones may come sooner in 2026

Gold and silver are beginning 2026 at levels that once seemed unthinkable, forcing investors to reassess how quickly the precious metals super-cycle could reach its next psychological milestones. With gold already trading above $4,600 an ounce and silver breaking through $90, markets are now openly debating whether $5,000 gold and $100 silver may arrive far earlier than expected.

The rally has gathered pace amid a rare convergence of forces. Escalating geopolitical tensions, concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve and renewed expectations of interest-rate cuts have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. This week alone, unrest in Iran and political pressure on the Fed sent bullion sharply higher, while softer inflation data reinforced bets that monetary policy will stay accommodative.

“Well-known haven characteristics amid heightened geopolitical risks, elevated fiscal uncertainty, and concerns about Fed independence,” are driving prices higher, Jamie Dutta, chief market analyst at Nemo.money told news agency Reuters. “Protests in Iran keep geopolitical tensions elevated, leading to a strong bid in bullion.”

But the surge is not being driven by fear alone. Structural shifts in global trade and resource security are playing a growing role. Daniel Casali, partner in investment strategy at Evelyn Partners, told CNBC that a new era of “resource nationalism” is reshaping demand for precious metals.

“When Trump started to raise tariffs, China started to respond, so they pulled out what I would define as a battle between the U.S. and China of resource nationalism,” he said. “China responded… by restricting rare earth exports… And then… we have export restrictions on silver. And again, silver is essential for AI technology, EVs, renewables, it’s a critical part of industrial production in the U.S. and the West.”

That strategic squeeze is being felt most acutely in silver. Supplies of physical metal are tightening as industrial demand surges, particularly from clean energy, data centres and defence manufacturing. Casali warned that this geopolitical chess match could keep prices elevated. “There are all these geopolitical chess pieces going round, but… resource nationalism can force up gold and silver prices.”

Surge in prices

The bullish tone has emboldened forecasters. Speaking to CNBC, Ned Naylor-Leyland of Jupiter Asset Management said it was “absolutely” possible for gold to touch $5,000 this year and for silver to surpass $100. “Based on the underlying factors driving the metals higher, investors should assume that that would definitely happen this year,” he said.

He pointed to mounting shortages of physical silver following export controls. “Silver is basically disappearing now to China and India — there’s about a $10 premium being paid in Shanghai,” he said, adding that the remaining supply in Western markets could continue flowing east. “The thing about silver is, if you don’t have it, you can’t build anything.”

Gold’s trajectory, meanwhile, remains closely tied to monetary policy credibility. “We’re in a rate-cutting environment with unconventional policies and chasing down chairman Powell… this is a debasement observation, and it’s still very much in play,” Naylor-Leyland said.

Paul Syms of Invesco echoed that view, noting that recent developments have intensified concerns over US monetary independence. “The statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell… has increased concern about the independence of the Fed and US monetary policy and spurred further interest in Gold as a perceived safe haven asset,” he said.

Domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal said the bullish momentum in precious metals is set to carry forward into 2026, with silver and gold both projected to scale new highs. The brokerage has pegged its MCX silver target at Rs 3,20,000 per kg, while identifying Rs 1,40,000 as a key downside risk level. For gold, it sees MCX prices advancing to Rs 1,60,000.

The firm expects silver’s rally to be strongest in the first half of the year, supported by ongoing policy uncertainty and sharp swings in currency markets.

Looking ahead, the trajectory in the latter half of 2026 is likely to depend on broader global signals — particularly trends in economic growth, the stability of bond markets and the credibility of central banks in managing monetary policy, the report noted.