El Niño 2026: How a record-strength event could affect India, monsoon & global weather in 2027

The Pacific Ocean is warming, and the consequences could extend far beyond the tropics. A powerful El Niño event is developing, with forecasts suggesting it could become the strongest such event ever recorded.

The phenomenon could push global temperatures higher, disrupt rainfall patterns and increase the risk of droughts, floods, heatwaves and other extreme weather events. The current El Niño began in June and is expected to continue into 2027. Forecasts from multiple modelling groups suggest the event could become exceptionally strong, potentially surpassing previous records.

What is El Niño?  

El Niño is the warm phase of a naturally recurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO has three broad states: El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions. El Niño and La Niña generally last nine to 12 months, although some events can persist longer.

The key to understanding El Niño lies in the tropical Pacific.

Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific. They push warm surface water towards Indonesia and Australia, while colder water rises from deeper layers near the coast of South America. This process, known as upwelling, brings nutrient-rich water to the surface and supports major fisheries.

The warm western Pacific also fuels heavy rainfall, while the cooler eastern Pacific tends to remain relatively dry.

How does El Niño develop?  

During El Niño, the Pacific trade winds weaken and can even reverse in some areas. As the winds lose strength, warm surface water moves eastwards towards South America. At the same time, the normal upwelling of cold deep water is suppressed.

This reduces the temperature difference between the western and eastern Pacific. The resulting changes in atmospheric pressure weaken the trade winds further, creating a positive feedback loop that amplifies the event.

The movement of warm water also shifts rainfall patterns. South America's west coast can become much wetter, while parts of Southeast Asia and Australia tend to become drier.

Why does El Niño matter to India?  

El Niño is particularly important for India because of its influence on the summer monsoon. El Niño can contribute to extreme heat in India during the early months of the year and increase drought risk later by weakening the summer monsoon.

That makes a strong El Niño a potential concern for agriculture, water resources and rural economies. However, the relationship is not a simple one-to-one prediction. Other atmospheric and oceanic factors also influence India's monsoon.

How does El Niño affect the rest of the world?  

The effects vary sharply from one region to another.

• South America: Northern and tropical parts can face warmer and drier conditions, increasing drought and wildfire risks. Southern Brazil, central Chile and northern Argentina can instead experience heavy rainfall and flooding.  
• Southeast Asia & Australia: El Niño generally increases the likelihood of dry conditions, drought and wildfires.  
• Africa: Southern Africa can face greater dryness and drought during December-February, while parts of eastern Africa can see increased flood risks.  
• North America: El Niño can bring milder winters to north-western Canada and the US, while increasing winter storms and flooding risks across parts of the southern US and California.  

What about tropical storms?  

El Niño can also alter where tropical storms form and how they develop. In the Atlantic and Caribbean, El Niño can suppress hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear, which can disrupt developing storms.

In the western Pacific, however, the eastward movement of warm water can shift tropical-storm formation eastwards. This can reduce the likelihood of storms moving towards the Philippines while increasing the chances of impacts on countries such as China, Japan and South Korea.

Storms that form farther east can also have more time over warm water before reaching land, potentially allowing them to strengthen.

Why does El Niño raise global temperatures?  

El Niño temporarily releases large amounts of heat stored in the tropical Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. Broadly, a 1°C change in the Niño 3.4 region is associated with around a 0.1°C change in global average temperature, with a lag of roughly three to six months.

This is why major El Niño events have coincided with exceptionally warm years, including 1998, 2016 and 2024. But there is an important distinction: El Niño is not the underlying cause of long-term global warming.

It causes short-term fluctuations around the long-term warming trend driven primarily by human greenhouse-gas emissions. As a result, El Niño can temporarily push global temperatures to new highs, but the broader upward trend is driven by climate change.

Why is 2026-27 being called a ‘super El Niño’?  

The term “super El Niño” is not a formal scientific classification. It is being used because forecasts suggest the current event could be exceptionally strong.

Forecast models indicate that the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly could surpass the previous record of 2.75°C, set during the 2015-16 El Niño.

If the forecasts prove correct, the event could have significant consequences for global temperatures and weather patterns through 2026 and into 2027.

Scientists have found evidence that the intensity of El Niño and the frequency of high-magnitude events have changed over recent decades. However, climate records reconstructed from natural evidence such as tree rings, corals and sediment show that El Niño has varied considerably over thousands of years.