China’s ‘Long March 9’ dreams threaten SpaceX’s dominance. Should Elon Musk be worried?

SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket — collectively known as Starship — represent a fully reusable space transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. As the most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, Starship can carry up to 150 metric tonnes in a fully reusable configuration and 250 metric tonnes in an expendable one.

While Starship has garnered significant attention, leading many to assume that the United States — primarily through SpaceX — stands alone in developing a super-heavy rocket aimed at reducing launch costs and enabling missions to Mars, SpaceX may soon face competition from China, which is also developing a super-heavy, reusable rocket: the Long March 9.

Originally conceived as an expendable vehicle, the Long March 9 has undergone a major redesign since its inception around 2016 and is now being developed as a reusable rocket. This shift was officially announced by China on April 24, during the nation’s Spaceflight Day celebrations.

The development of this heavy-lift rocket is part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), with reusable rockets being a key objective in the country’s 2021 White Paper on Space Activities. The first launch of the Long March 9's three-stage basic design is targeted for 2030, while the two-stage reusable version is expected to launch in 2040.

At 114 meters tall, the Long March 9 is designed to carry at least 150 tonnes to low Earth orbit (LEO) in one of its planned configurations. It will feature a two-stage design, with the first stage powered by 30 YF-215 engines that use liquid oxygen and liquid methane — propellants similar to those used by SpaceX’s Super Heavy rocket, which has 33 Raptor engines utilising the same propellants.

Like SpaceX’s Starship, China’s Long March 9 aims to significantly reduce launch costs. While the Long March 5, which can carry 25 tonnes to LEO, costs about $3,000 per kilogram to LEO, the Long March 9 is expected to lower that to about $1,500 per kilogram — putting it in line with SpaceX’s estimates for Starship.

SpaceX’s Starship has already completed five test flights, with a sixth scheduled for November. The company aims to have Starship operational by September 2025 to support NASA’s Artemis 3 mission to the Moon.

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, declared that “building a new world on Mars is now possible” after Starship, the world’s largest and most powerful rocket, surpassed the capabilities of NASA’s Saturn V Moon rocket.

Standing at 400 feet (122 meters) tall, Starship is the most powerful rocket ever built. The stainless-steel vehicle consists of two fully reusable stages: a massive booster called Super Heavy and a 165-foot-tall (50 meters) upper stage known as Starship, or simply Ship. Both stages are powered by SpaceX’s next-generation Raptor engines — 33 on Super Heavy and six on Ship.

“More importantly, Starship is designed to be fully reusable, using low-cost propellant—80% liquid oxygen and 20% liquid methane,” Musk said in a post on X. “This makes the cost per tonne to orbit approximately 10,000% lower than that of the Saturn V.”

China’s ambitions with the Long March 9 are clear: to establish a permanent presence on the Moon, build infrastructure in stable gravitational zones like the Earth-Moon and Earth-Sun Lagrange points, and develop space-based solar power satellites through in-orbit assembly and manufacturing. Ultimately, China aims to create a low-cost, end-to-end space logistics system capable of supporting long-term space exploration and development.