T20 WC Semi-Final Scenario: What Pakistan must do after Sri Lanka’s exit to still be in contention

ICC Men's T20 World Cup semi-final hopes are hanging by a thread after Sri Lanka’s exit from the tournament. On February 25 in Colombo, the New Zealand national cricket team crushed the Sri Lanka national cricket team by 61 runs, significantly boosting their Net Run Rate (NRR) to +3.050.

That massive jump has put New Zealand in pole position to qualify from Group 2 alongside the England cricket team.

For the Pakistan national cricket team, the situation is far from comfortable. With an NRR of -0.461, Pakistan must not only beat Sri Lanka in their final Super 8 clash but do so convincingly.

As things currently stand, Pakistan needs a win by at least 70 runs to stay in contention, and even that may not be enough without help from England.

Does Pakistan have a chance to reach the semi-finals?

Pakistan’s qualification depends heavily on England defeating New Zealand. The margin of England’s victory will directly impact the NRR calculations. For instance, if England beat New Zealand by 20 runs, Pakistan would need to defeat Sri Lanka by around 50 runs to sneak into the semi-finals.

However, if England’s match against New Zealand is washed out, New Zealand will automatically seal their place in the last four.

The equation becomes even tougher if Sri Lanka bats first against Pakistan. If Sri Lanka posts 200 runs, Pakistan would need to chase it down in under 15 overs to achieve the required NRR boost. A more realistic target of 150 would still require Pakistan to finish the chase in under 14 overs.

The only advantage for Pakistan is clarity. Since England plays New Zealand a day before Pakistan faces Sri Lanka, the exact target will be known. If Pakistan manages to pull off the required result, they will play the Group 1 toppers in the Colombo semi-final, with the final also scheduled to be held in Sri Lanka.