Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz? Final decision still pending; will China weigh in? 

The possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz – through which around 20 per cent of global oil and gas demand flows – has sent ripples across the world. Iran has for long used the threat of closing the strait to ward off pressures from the Western world, but now that Tehran has been cornered by US and Israel, will it actually shut if off?

The Iranian parliament has approved the measure of closing the strait, however, the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council of the country. US, on the other hand has called the impending move economic suicide, and has urged China to dissuade Tehran. 

Iran’s Press TV said on Sunday that the decision to close the strait is not final, and it was not officially reported that the parliament had adopted a bill to that effect. "For now, [parliament has] come to the conclusion we should close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision in this regard is the responsibility of the Supreme National Security Council,” said member of parliament's national security commission Esmail Kosari, who is also a Revolutionary Guards Commander.

Kosari had earlier indicated that the closing of the strait was on the agenda and "will be done whenever necessary". Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, on the other hand, did not make it clear if the strait would be closed and instead said, "A variety of options are available to Iran.”

The strait lies between Oman and Iran and links the Mideast Gulf north of it with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond. It is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lane just 2 miles (3 km) wide in either direction.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to intervene with Iran to prevent the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio, speaking on Fox News said, "I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil." 

Rubio warned that Iran's decision to shut the strait could be catastrophic. "If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It's economic suicide for them," he stated.

China is Iran's biggest trading partner and the largest buyer of its oil. A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz would seriously affect Beijing's energy security and disrupt important supply routes under the Belt and Road Initiative. China has invested heavily in Iranian infrastructure, including rail links such as the recently operational freight line from Xi'an to Tehran, to strengthen trade connectivity. A regional conflict that stops oil supplies and disrupts logistics is not in China's interest.

According to former US Pentagon official Michael Rubin, China may not openly oppose Tehran's statements but will use its economic influence behind the scenes. “If Hormuz is choked, China bleeds first,” he said.

“Forty-four percent of the fuel that goes through Hormuz ends up in Asia — mostly in China, and to some degree in India. So there might be a short disruption. But beyond that, Iran would be committing suicide,” he said.

There are alternative supply routes, including pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE that bypass Hormuz, but these have limited capacity. The United States has also increased its energy exports, positioning itself as a backup supplier.