‘Global economy could collapse by early May’: Analyst issues stark warning over oil crisis 

Energy economist Anas Alhajji has issued a stark warning about the global economic outlook, saying the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push the world economy toward collapse if the conflict does not end soon. 

In a recent post on social media, Alhajji cautioned that the economic consequences of a prolonged war could become severe within weeks. “If this war doesn't end soon, the global economy would collapse by early May,” he wrote, highlighting the growing risks linked to disruptions in global energy markets. 

Growing Hormuz crisis & global spillover 

Alhajji described the current situation as a widening “Hormuz crisis,” referring to rising tensions around the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway is one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, carrying roughly a fifth of global oil supplies. 

Any disruption in shipping through the Strait could send shockwaves across energy markets and global trade. According to Alhajji, the impact is already being felt beyond the Middle East, particularly in Europe. 

“Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy,” he warned, suggesting the crisis could reverse years of efforts by European nations to reduce dependence on Moscow following the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Oil prices surge in Asian markets 

Alhajji also pointed to sharp price movements in energy markets. He noted that oil prices in Asia have already exceeded $173 per barrel, reflecting heightened fears of supply disruptions linked to potential escalation involving Iran. 

In earlier commentary, he warned that prices could climb to record levels if tensions intensify or if the conflict spreads further across the region. Energy traders are increasingly pricing in the risk that shipping routes in the Persian Gulf could face disruptions. 

Questions over US strategic reserves 

The economist also raised questions about the sustainability of supply measures taken by Washington. In particular, he asked what could happen to US commercial crude inventories after the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has previously been tapped to stabilize markets during supply shocks. 

If disruptions persist and inventories tighten, analysts say the ability of governments to cushion the impact on fuel prices may become limited. 

A prolonged conflict affecting energy infrastructure or maritime routes could trigger cascading economic consequences, including inflation, supply chain disruptions, and slower global growth.