'They would be committing suicide': Former Pentagon official explains why China won’t let Iran choke Hormuz lifeline

Iran may be threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, but former U.S. Pentagon official Michael Rubin says the move would be “suicidal” — and both Washington and Beijing know it.

As tensions rise following U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Tehran has issued a bold warning: the Strait of Hormuz could be closed “within hours.” But military analysts and strategic experts are skeptical. The strait, a narrow maritime chokepoint through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil flow daily, is simply too vital — not just for Iran’s enemies, but for its closest partners too.

“Forty-four percent of the fuel that goes through Hormuz ends up in Asia — mostly in China, and to some degree in India,” Rubin noted. “So there might be a short disruption. But beyond that, Iran would be committing suicide.”

Rubin emphasized that Iran’s own dependence on fuel imports — including gasoline — means that closing Hormuz would strangle its own economy before hurting its adversaries. “Their military and economy would wither away,” he said, making it clear that the threat may be more political theatre than military reality.

China, Iran’s biggest trading partner and the largest buyer of its oil, plays a quiet but powerful role in this equation. A full closure of Hormuz would severely undermine Beijing’s energy security and disrupt key supply routes under the Belt and Road Initiative. China has invested heavily in Iranian infrastructure — including rail links like the recently operational freight line from Xi’an to Tehran — to solidify trade connectivity. A regional conflict that cuts off oil and derails logistics is not in Beijing’s interest.

“China may not publicly oppose Tehran’s rhetoric, but it will use its economic leverage behind the scenes,” one analyst said. “If Hormuz is choked, China bleeds first.”

Alternative supply routes, including pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE that bypass Hormuz, offer some resilience — but they’re limited in capacity. The U.S. has also stepped up energy exports, positioning itself as a fallback supplier.

Despite fiery threats from Tehran, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz is easier said than done. Iran stands to lose more than it gains — and with China’s energy lifeline on the line, Tehran may find itself pressured from both rivals and allies to keep the oil flowing.