Trump tariffs: US Supreme Court withholds key ruling, leaves markets guessing

The US Supreme Court will not issue a ruling on January 9 in the closely watched legal challenge to tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under emergency powers, prolonging uncertainty over the future of one of the administration’s most consequential trade tools. 

Speculation had mounted that the court would deliver its decision today. However, the justices released only one opinion for the day, and it was unrelated to the tariffs. No new date has been announced for when the ruling will be issued. 

The case is being closely tracked by financial markets, trade groups and US importers, given its potential impact on tariff policy, government revenues and future executive authority on trade. When the ruling does arrive, the court is expected to address two core questions. 

First, whether the Trump administration lawfully relied on provisions of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs by declaring a national emergency. Trump invoked the statute in part to curb the inflow of fentanyl into the United States. 

Second, if the court finds the use of IEEPA improper, it will need to determine whether importers who have already paid duties are entitled to reimbursement — and if so, how much. 

Legal experts say the court has a wide range of options, including narrowing the scope of IEEPA authority or ordering only limited repayment rather than a full refund of duties collected. 

White House signals backup plans 

The administration has publicly indicated it is prepared for an adverse ruling. 

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on January 9 that senior officials discussed alternative legal strategies the previous night should the court strike down the tariffs imposed under IEEPA. Hassett said the administration could rely on other statutory authorities to replicate existing trade arrangements “basically immediately.” 

While stressing that the White House expects to prevail, Hassett said contingency plans are in place if it does not. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also suggested the ruling may not be clear-cut, saying on Thursday that he expects a “mishmash” outcome rather than a sweeping decision. 

Other legal paths  

Even if the administration loses the case, officials argue the White House still has multiple tools to maintain most of the tariffs without relying on emergency powers. 

Bessent has said the administration has at least three alternative options under the 1962 Trade Act that could preserve much of the current tariff framework. However, he has also warned that large-scale reimbursements could strain government finances and complicate efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit. 

According to Treasury data, tariffs generated about $195 billion in fiscal year 2025 and another $62 billion in fiscal 2026. 

Market expectations & Economic impact 

Prediction market Kalshi currently assigns just a 28% probability that the Supreme Court will fully uphold the tariffs as implemented. Analysts say investor expectations broadly align with that outlook. 

So far, the economic impact of the tariffs has defied some earlier forecasts. Inflation effects have been limited, while the US trade deficit has fallen sharply. In October, the trade imbalance dropped to its lowest level since the aftermath of the 2009 financial crisis, driven in part by a steep decline in imports.