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UK referendum: Here is how the Brexit day will unfold

UK referendum: Here is how the Brexit day will unfold

Polling will begin in Britain at 10 am local time and will continue all day till 10 pm.

BusinessToday.In
  • New Delhi,
  • Updated Jun 21, 2016 6:00 PM IST
UK referendum: Here is how the Brexit day will unfold

Thursday will be crucial as the citizens of Britain will decide whether the country will remain in the European Union or part, ending the year-long liaison.

 ALSO READ: Brexit speculation shaking global economy: World Bank

Polling will begin in Britain at 10 am local time and will continue all day till 10 pm. But unlike general elections, broadcasters will not release an exit poll because of cross section of voters and concerns over accuracy.

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A recent study by Number Cruncher Politics, a blog focussed on UK psephology, statistical analysis, opinion polls and politics, calculates a Brexit forecast model and probabilities of outcome. The likeliest outcome as calculated by them is to 'Remain' in the EU.
 
This comes in the wake of Labour Party MP Jo Cox's death which swayed the sentiments of Britain to vote against a Brexit. Cox vehemently supported that Britain to remain a part of the EU


ALSO READ: Wondering what Brexit is all about? Read all about it and how it matters to India


COUNTING PROCESS

Each ballot box will be transported to centres in 382 areas for local counts. First, officials will tally up the number of ballot papers in each box and check if it matches records from the relevant polling station. Following this, the announcement for local turnout will be declared after which teams will begin to sort and count the ballot papers. Finally, each result will be announced locally by the official in charge, who will read it aloud in the counting centre, maybe even in front of a television camera.

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IT'S THE COUNT MATTERS

It doesn't matter how many individual area each sides wins, the total number of votes across the country is what matters.

In a scenario where one of the sides dispute the result in a particular area, the ballot papers will be taken back to be recounted which can be time consuming affair.

THE COUNTDOWN

A recent Bloomberg report explained how the referendum day will pan out:

12.00 Midnight

The isles of Scilly, home to 2,000 of UK's 65 million population, and Gibralter, where 33,000 people live, are the first areas from where the results to be announced.

A poll in April suggested that 88 per cent will vote to remain.

12.30 to 1 am

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Poll results of the cities of northeast Sunderland and Newcastle, with a combined population of 600,000, will be the second to declare their results

This will be followed by the results from the City of London, Britain's most pro-EU district. However, it accounts for the second smallest count area and is not a clear representative indicator.

1 a.m. to 2 am

Oldham is due to provide the first result from northwest England which, according to polls, tends towards a 'leave'
Results will speed up from Basildon, in Essex, and Hartlepool in the northeast.

Stockport and Salford are to follow with Wales and Scotland completing the western isles.

2 a.m. to 3 a.m.

By 2 a.m. 40 per cent of the results are scheduled to announced, thereby highlighting a plausible trend as to where things are moving forward.

Vote results of Castle Point in Essex, Lambeth in south London and Oxford are scheduled to be declared with the biggest leave and remain result respectively as per their campaigns.

3 a.m.

140 out of 382 votes will be declared by this time with results of Thanet, Edinburgh, Cambridge and Lancaster out.

4 a.m.

This will be clocked as the busiest hour seeing over 100 counts that include Northern Ireland and Birmingham with the combined population of 2.9 million.

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5 a.m.

Bigger cities like Manchester, Glasgow and Liverpool that are densely inhabited will start to announce their results. If the schedule goes as per the plan, 30 more results would be left.

6 a.m.

Leeds and Bristol will be the last two cities to announce their results at this hour followed by rural Cornwall.

7 a.m.

Finally, Arun on the south coast, Waveney on the east coast and Harborough in the East Midlands with a combined population of 350,000 will decide the outcomes if the results up till this point are fairly close.

It is important to note that these coastal areas are extremely pro-Brexit.  

Once the result is announced, Chief Counting Officer Jenny Watson will formally announce the national result on June 24th in Manchester.

 

Published on: Jun 21, 2016 4:35 PM IST
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