Fitch Cuts India FY27 Growth To 6.4%, Cites Global Risks And Oil Shock Impact

Fitch has revised India’s FY27 growth forecast downward to 6.4%, cutting it by 30 basis points amid rising global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran conflict impact on oil prices and trade flows. The agency, however, slightly upgraded FY28 growth expectations to 6.7%, signaling a medium-term recovery outlook. It also projected that the Reserve Bank of India could hike the repo rate to 5.5% from the current 5.25%, reflecting inflationary pressures and external risks. According to Complete Circle CEO Kshitiz Mahajan, markets may be reacting to short-term shocks, while India’s structural drivers like tax reforms, GST benefits, and potential rate cuts could support growth recovery. He noted that the current downgrade may be a knee-jerk reaction, with conditions likely to stabilize if global tensions ease.