'Beijing will do everything to...': Analyst on why strong Indo-China ties are a death knell to New Delhi's $10 tn economy goal

Policy analyst Surya Kanegaonkar recently debunked the claims that China is key in India's journey to becoming a $10 trillion economy. He said that what China needs is a large market where it can dump its cheap, fast-moving machine-made foods. 

He also said that New Delhi offers all that Beijing needs to dominate India "on a platter". "It also needs to build a unipolar Asia in which India remains an inferior power, hobbled by structural deficiencies and strangled by the inefficiencies of democracy. This, New Delhi offers on a platter," he wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter). 

Kanegaonkar further said that China will do everything to dent India's ability to industrialise and build an independent and secure manufacturing base.

He also critiqued India's foreign policy as "flawed" since it involved not only cozying up to but also relying on a hostile neighbour for its economic success. 

In a recent podcast, Observer Research Foundation (ORF) president Samir Saran said that China is extremely important for India to become a $10 trillion economy.

"It is unlikely that you are going to be in a world where you both will not have to deal with each other intermittently across domains. There is no way you can be $10 trillion as an economy without having a substantial trading relationship with China," Saran said in a podcast with ANI. 

Saran added that the balance of trade is favourable towards China, something which India needs to change. 

Recently, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has suggested a potential revival in economic relations between India and China after years of tension. The Finance Minister acknowledged that "a beginning has been made" in India-China economic engagements, but caution remains necessary.

Despite such strains, Sitharaman noted that both countries are now seeking to improve ties. "We need more access, and we need to have a lot more interaction," she said.

Sitharaman said that bilateral trade is taking priority over multilateral trade, citing agreements signed with Australia, the UAE, and the UK in the last 4-5 years. She further said: "Negotiations are progressing well with the United States as well as the European Union."

Trade relations had soured following the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, leading to stricter norms for foreign direct investment and bans on Chinese apps.