BJP, JDU likely to seal equal share in Bihar — now it’s the allies’ turn at the bargaining table

Bihar will hold its 2025 Assembly elections in two phases on 6 and 11 November, with results due on 14 November. Over 7.4 crore voters, including first-time and female voters, are expected to participate in a contest between the NDA, Mahagathbandhan, and Jan Suraaj. According to the latest seat-sharing arrangement, the BJP and JDU are preparing to contest an equal number of seats, with a total of 205 seats divided between the two NDA partners.

The remaining 38 seats are expected to be distributed among smaller NDA allies, including the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLM). Reports suggest the BJP has offered 25 seats to LJP chief Chirag Paswan, seven seats to HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi, and six seats to Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM.

Negotiations with Chirag Paswan are ongoing, with the LJP leader seeking preferred constituencies for his party. If LJP's share increases, there could be a reduction for HAM and RLM. Seat-sharing discussions have included possible compensations for smaller allies if their allocations decrease. The BJP may compensate them with offers of Rajya Sabha and Legislative Council seats.

Key voting blocs such as the 33% Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), who have historically supported the NDA, are being targeted by both alliances. The NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JDU and supported by the BJP, faces a challenge from the Mahagathbandhan comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties. The Aam Aadmi Party will contest all 243 seats for the first time in Bihar.

Improved infrastructure and the distribution of constituencies across rural, flood-prone, and border regions have influenced the polling schedule. The Election Commission has mapped phase 1 to 121 constituencies in central Bihar and phase 2 to 122 constituencies mainly in border areas.

With the term of the current 243-member Bihar Assembly ending on 22 November, the elections are expected to set the tone for political alignments in the state.