'Cancel Quad summit if Trump...': Brahma Chellaney warns US-India tensions are clouding future of the grouping

Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney on Wednesday raised concerns over the escalating tensions between the US and India, warning that these tensions could potentially cloud the future of the Quad. Chellaney pointed out that if US President Donald Trump persists with his hardline tariff stance and follows through on his threat to impose secondary sanctions over India's Russian oil imports, it could significantly undermine the Quad's momentum. 

"If Trump persists with his hardline tariff stance toward India — and follows through on his threat to impose secondary sanctions over its Russian oil imports — the Quad summit scheduled for this fall in India, which Trump is to attend, could be postponed," Chellaney wrote on X.

The Quad, a strategic alliance between the US, India, Japan, and Australia, has been a cornerstone of the Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China's growing influence. However, tensions between the US and India, particularly over trade and defense issues, are casting a shadow over the grouping's future.

India will host the 2025 edition of the Quad Summit later this year, which is to be attended by heads of member states, including Trump.    

Trump has accused India of being "the highest tariff nation," which he claimed was hindering trade between the two countries. He also announced plans to "substantially" raise tariffs on India, citing its continued purchase of Russian oil, which he stated was "fueling the war machine" amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "India has not been a good trading partner...I think I’m going to raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours," Trump said during a CNBC Squawk Box interview.

India quickly retaliated, rejecting Trump's criticism and calling out the double standards of both the US and the European Union, who continue their trade relations with Russia despite the ongoing war. "Unlike our case, such trade is not even a vital national compulsion," India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated, highlighting how the US continues to import critical goods from Russia, including uranium and palladium, despite the geopolitical context.

On May 13, just days after India-Pakistan ceasefire, Sushant Sareen, a prominent security analyst, expressed doubt over the effectiveness of QUAD as the US admin was seen siding with Islamabad. "The trust and strategic links built over years of painstaking efforts between India and USA have become strained," Sareen wrote on X. "India no longer trusts the US. @POTUS, @VP, & @SecRubio have effectively done what China wanted - undermine QUAD. The body might still exist but India will be wary, very wary of anything the Americans propose. Defence deals? Guess India will be looking elsewhere. Who can trust the Americans after this treachery."