'Comparing apples to oranges': Amitabh Kant defends India's revised GDP methodology

Former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant has defended India's latest GDP number and the government's revised methodology. He argued that comparisons between GDP figures calculated under different base-year series can lead to misleading conclusions.

In a post on X, Kant said the debate surrounding India’s latest growth numbers was similar to the controversy that followed the introduction of the 2011-12 GDP series in 2015. He stressed that changes in methodology are necessary to reflect the evolving structure and dynamics of the Indian economy.

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‘Comparing apples to oranges’

Kant said GDP figures from different series should not be directly compared because the underlying methodology and data framework have changed.

“It is not appropriate to compare GDP data across various series,” he said, pointing to the difference between the GDP estimates under the 2011-12 series and the new 2022-23 series.

According to him, GDP data for the first quarter of the current financial year was estimated at around ₹75 lakh crore, or ₹80 trillion, under the GDP rebasing framework, compared with ₹81 lakh crore under another calculation.

“This gives us a real growth rate of ~7.8%,” Kant said, adding that comparing GDP generated using the 2011-12 series with figures generated under the 2022-23 series would be “comparing Apples to Oranges.”

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FY26 estimates show the methodology gap

The former NITI Aayog CEO also highlighted the difference between estimates produced under the old and new methodologies for FY26. Under the 2011-12 series, the first advance estimate (FAE) for FY26 put GDP at ₹201 lakh crore. Under the new series, the second advance estimate places the figure at ₹322 lakh crore.

He argued that the difference should not be interpreted as evidence that India’s economy has suddenly grown by 60%. “No one is claiming that the economy grew by 60%!” Kant said, explaining that the apparent jump results from comparing data calculated using two different series.

Nominal GDP also reflects revised methodology

Addressing another aspect of the debate, Kant said even nominal GDP estimates show differences between the old and new methodologies. He noted that the FY26 estimate stood at ₹357 lakh crore under the old methodology and ₹345 lakh crore under the new methodology.

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“This does not mean the economy has contracted in nominal terms; it merely reflects the updated methodology,” he said.

Why GDP methodology changes matter

Kant also drew a parallel with 2015, when the introduction of the 2011-12 GDP series sparked questions over India’s growth estimates.

He argued that base-year revisions are necessary to capture changes in economic activity. Since 2015, he noted, India has seen major developments, including the expansion of digital payments, implementation of GST and increased digitisation.