‘Some people are unable to digest…’: SBI Ecowrap says unnecessary controversy has been created on 7.8% GDP growth rate

India GDP growth rate at 7.8%: It is difficult to understand why some people are unable to digest that the Indian economy grew by a robust 7.8 per cent, said SBI Ecowrap. It said an “unnecessary controversy” has been created over India’s latest growth figures due to what it called incorrect interpretation of the revised GDP data, stressing that the economy grew 7.8 per cent year-on-year in real terms and 10.3 per cent in nominal terms in Q1 FY27.

The controversy centres on revisions to the previous year’s GDP figures following the change in the GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. When the NSO released Q1 FY26 GDP data on August 29, 2025, nominal GDP was estimated at ₹86.1 lakh crore. In the latest release on August 31, 2026, the Q1 FY26 figure was revised down to ₹80.0 lakh crore, while Q1 FY27 nominal GDP stood at ₹88.3 lakh crore.

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SBI Ecowrap said, without naming former finance secretary Subhash Garg, that some estimates had calculated nominal growth at just 2.6 per cent by comparing the latest ₹88.3 lakh crore figure with the earlier unrevised ₹86.1 lakh crore figure. Garg had said in an interview to NDTV that the GDP growth is actually 2.6 per cent and not 7.8 per cent.

“The current prices GDP for last year was ₹86 lakh crore, which has been revised down to ₹80 lakh crore. By revising last year's GDP by as much as ₹6 lakh crore, the current year’s GDP for the first quarter has gone up by about 10.3 per cent. If you had not revised last year’s GDP the growth in current prices would have been only 2.6 per cent,” Garg had said.

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The SBI research note called this approach “completely unsolicited” and a “sure sign of intellectual dishonesty”. According to the report, “If anyone truly wants to compare current nominal GDP numbers over the previous unrevised base of Q1 GDP, then ₹88.3 lakh crore (new base, A series) should be estimated over ₹80.4 lakh crore (new base, B series), which comes out to 9.7 per cent  growth (as against 10.3 per cent). Hypothetically, even with this nominal growth (by adjusting deflator), the real growth for Q1 FY27 would be 7.4 per cent (as against released 7.8 per cent), still good enough when looking at a wall of exogenous challenges.”

The report also pointed out that GDP revisions can move in either direction. Quarterly data on the old base showed 25 upward revisions and 12 downward revisions between FY22 and FY25. It said an upward revision can also introduce a downward bias in GDP calculations.

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SBI Ecowrap said the confusion arose because the latest National Accounts Statistics release additionally incorporated revised figures for previous years directly into quarterly data, alongside the usual revisions to previous-year GDP estimates.

The report said such revisions are legitimate and help align GDP data with updated CPI, IIP, WPI and PPI figures.

It also stressed that GDP numbers undergo multiple revisions. The Q1 FY27 estimate released in August 2026 will only be finalised by February 2029, meaning the final position will take about 30 months to emerge.

SBI Ecowrap further rejected claims that the base-year revision had inflated the size of nominal GDP, noting that the latest revision had actually reduced it.