‘Don’t do unto others…’: China threatens Brahmaputra leverage against India in aid to ‘friend’ Pakistan

As tensions deepen between India and Pakistan over water-sharing, China has added a chilling layer to the equation. Victor Zhikai Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, issued a pointed warning to India: "Don't do onto others what you don't want done to you."

His warning, delivered in an interview with India Today, hinted at Beijing’s own strategic grip on the Brahmaputra, a river crucial to India’s water security following India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack.

Gao's repeated the caution thrice when asked if China might weaponise the Brahmaputra’s waters in support of its “all-weather friend” Pakistan. He underscored India’s vulnerability as a midstream nation, suggesting it "may face difficulties" should similar retaliatory measures occur.

India’s decision to put the IWT in abeyance was part of a package of punitive responses following the April 22 terrorist strike in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam. Signed in 1960, the treaty governs the use and distribution of the six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, a Right to Information (RTI) investigation by India Today has revealed a concerning silence from China. Since 2022, Beijing has stopped sharing vital hydrological data on transboundary rivers like the Brahmaputra. The lapse follows the expiration — and non-renewal — of earlier Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). This blackout coincides with an acceleration of Chinese mega-dam construction in Tibet, cutting India off from critical upstream flow data just as it needs it most.

The Brahmaputra supports nearly a third of India’s freshwater reserves and over 40% of its hydropower potential. Without access to upstream metrics, India is exposed to heightened ecological, economic, and strategic risks, particularly in the Northeast.

On January 6, 2025, China reaffirmed plans to construct the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Brahmaputra in Tibet, near the Indian border. Though China claims the $137 billion (Rs 11.9 lakh crore) project has undergone rigorous scientific assessments and will not harm downstream countries, its proximity to India’s northeastern frontier — already a zone of territorial tension — deepens geopolitical anxieties.

Adding to the strategic calculus, Pakistan views the dam project as a strategic gain, one that not only strengthens its alliance with China but also acts as a counterweight to Indian regional influence.

The Brahmaputra, or Yarlung Tsangpo as it is called in Tibet, begins near Mount Kailash and flows through China, India, and Bangladesh before merging with the Ganges and emptying into the Bay of Bengal.