Haryana impact? Congress falters in bypoll race, BJP gains momentum in Rajasthan

After the Lok Sabha results, the Congress had an upper hand in Rajasthan, where it stunned the BJP by winning 8 parliamentary seats from zero in 2019. The BJP's tally came down from 24 to just 10 in 2024. However, the Haryana results have punctured the momentum that the grand old party had got in June and once again put the saffron party back in the reckoning in the state. 

The next round of showdown is scheduled for November 13, when Congress will once again square off with the ruling saffron party for the 7 assembly seats in the byelections. The seats going to polls are Jhunjhunu, Dausa, Deoli-Uniara, Khinvsar, Chorasi, Salumbar, and Ramgarh.

Of these seven seats, four were with the Congress while one seat each was with the BJP, Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP), and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP). In the Lok Sabha elections, BAP and RLP were in alliance with the Congress. However, that alliance is not there for the byelections.

According to The Indian Express, the BJP has contained its rebels, but the Congress is facing a challenge in Rajasthan. The grand old party also suffered a setback when Durg Singh, who contested as an Independent in 2023 from Khinvsar, joined the BJP.  

In Devli Uniara, denied a ticket by the Congress again, Naresh Meena is contesting as an independent and is claiming the support of the BAP, the RLP, and others. Former Congress minister Rajendra Gudha is also contesting from Jhunjhunu. 

BJP, on the other hand, has controlled rebellion from Jai Ahuja in Ramgarh, Bablu Chaudhary in Jhunjhunu, and Narendra Meena in Salumber. Durg Singh's induction is also likely to give BJP an edge in Khinvsar, historically a stronghold of the Beniwal family since its establishment in 2008.

In Ramgarh, Congress faces a steeper challenge after Ahuja withdrew from the race. In 2023, Congress's Zubair Khan won as anti-Congress votes were divided between BJP's Sukhavant Singh and Ahuja. Similarly, in 2018, Zubair's wife, Shafia Zubair, won due to division within the BJP, which saw a party member, Jagat Singh, contesting on a BSP ticket.

In Jhunjhunu, the combined votes of the BJP and its rebel candidate exceeded 100,000 votes in 2023, surpassing Congress candidate Brijendra Singh Ola by over 13,000 votes. However, this equation has changed in a direct fight between Congress and the BJP.  

The BJP's current position as the ruling party could also bolster its chances, supported by promises like creating 400,000 government jobs, cracking down on paper leaks, issuing a recruitment calendar, and advancing projects such as the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP), covering constituencies like Dausa, Ramgarh, and Devli Uniara. 

Also, Congress party's veteran hand Ashok Gehlot is busy in Maharashtra, where elections are scheduled for November 20. Gehlot, a three-time Rajasthan Chief Minister, has been appointed as an AICC senior observer for Mumbai and the Konkan region, while his former deputy Sachin Pilot is overseeing the Marathwada division, IE reported. 

Bypolls on two seats are being held due to the deaths of the MLAs -- Congress's Zubair Khan on Ramgarh and BJP's Amritlal Meena on Salumbar. In the rest five seats, the MLAs were elected as MPs in the Lok Sabha polls.