How Nitish Kumar’s M-Y formula flipped the script and floored Bihar’s opposition

Just months after being written off as politically irrelevant and physically unfit to govern, Nitish Kumar has delivered a stunning comeback—leading the NDA past the 200-seat mark in Bihar and proving he is still one of India’s most formidable political survivors.

Dismissed by the media after walking out of the Mahagathbandhan and rejoining the BJP-led NDA ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Kumar has now nearly doubled his party’s seat tally to 83. The NDA’s dominant performance, reminiscent of the 2010 sweep, has not only revived his political standing but also shattered assumptions about voter fatigue and anti-incumbency.

What was once thought to be Nitish Kumar’s final term as Chief Minister may now be the start of yet another chapter.

While the opposition relied heavily on caste equations and accused the BJP-JDU alliance of “vote chori,” Nitish rewrote the script. In a state where Muslims and Yadavs make up 32 percent of the population, Kumar, a Kurmi with just 3 percent representation, turned to a different M-Y formula—Mahila and Youth.

He backed it up with action. Over 1.2 crore women received ₹10,000 ahead of the polls to start small businesses. Power bills were waived up to 125 units. Pensions for the elderly jumped from ₹400 to ₹1,100. These pre-poll handouts landed hard. A record 71 percent of women turned out to vote.

The Mahagathbandhan misread the ground. RJD’s focus on Muslim-Yadav consolidation backfired as Extremely Backward Classes and non-Yadav OBCs felt sidelined. Two-thirds of RJD’s OBC candidates were Yadavs. Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign, marked by an AI-generated cartoon mocking Nitish and grand promises like one government job per household, failed to gain traction.

Congress added little to the alliance, offering recycled complaints about “free and fair elections” without confronting its own lack of strategy.

Meanwhile, the NDA was relentlessly coordinated. Prime Minister Modi held 13 rallies and a roadshow in Patna. Every major leader, from Amit Shah to Chirag Paswan, reinforced a single message: Nitish Kumar is our face, and this alliance is united.