IMD predicts early monsoon on May 27; kharif crops, rural demand may get a boost

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Saturday that the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive at the Kerala coast on May 27, five days earlier than its usual onset date of June 1. This early arrival is anticipated to positively impact the kharif sowing season, provided the momentum is sustained through the coming months. The early onset is with a model error margin of plus or minus four days, as stated by the IMD. Historically, an early monsoon has been favourable for agriculture by boosting farm production and reservoir levels. 

The IMD has also predicted that the 2025 monsoon could be "above normal", quantitatively expected to reach 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). 

Last month, the IMD released its first official forecast for the 2025 monsoon season, predicting that this year's rainfall could be "above normal", amounting to 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error margin of plus or minus 5%. This marks the second consecutive year in which the IMD has anticipated an "above normal" monsoon. The cumulative all India LPA for June to September rains is 87 centimeters, and rainfall between 96-104% of the LPA is considered normal.

Such a favourable forecast has been made, suggesting potential benefits for India's agrarian economy. The department estimates a 59 per cent probability of the monsoon being "above normal", a 30 per cent chance of it being "normal", and only a 2 per cent likelihood of a deficient season. These predictions play a crucial role in shaping agricultural expectations and planning. 

The forecast indicates that regions such as Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and the north-eastern states might experience below-normal rainfall. In contrast, states forming the core monsoon zone, including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. This distribution is crucial as the core monsoon zone is primarily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, making the forecast critical for farmers in these areas. 

The IMD's predictions are supported by parallel forecasts from private weather agency Skymet, which has also anticipated a "normal" monsoon at 103 per cent of the LPA for 2025. This consistency in predictions from both public and private forecasters lends confidence to stakeholders in the agricultural sector, who rely heavily on these forecasts for planning and decision-making. A robust monsoon can significantly influence the economic well-being of the rural sector, which forms the backbone of the Indian economy. 

Overall, the early monsoon arrival and favourable rainfall predictions offer a promising outlook for the agricultural season, with the potential to enhance farm productivity and water resources.