India’s $5 trillion dream hinges on manufacturing, urbanisation and R&D, say industry leaders at Oxford India Forum

India’s march toward $5 trillion economy — and ultimately developed‑nation status by 2047 — will hinge on faster growth, deeper industrialisation and a dramatic scale‑up of research and development, speakers said in the Oxford India Forum. 

In a high‑energy panel titled “Unlocking the $3 Trillion Economy: Activating Engines of Growth,” EY India Chairman & CII President Rajiv Memani, Forbes Marshall Co‑Chair Dr Naushad Forbes and educationist‑entrepreneur Shankar Vanavarayar sketched a roadmap that blends bold private‑sector ambition with targeted policy reform.  

Growth must top 8 % — now 

Kicking off the discussion, Dr Forbes warned that India can no longer afford “good‑enough” growth. “To become a developed economy by 2047 we need to average about 8.5 percent a year — roughly two percentage points above what we managed over the last 35 years,” he said. That pace, he argued, is easier to achieve while the economy is still near the $4 trillion mark; waiting until India is larger will make high growth “tougher and tougher.” 

Three structural levers 

Dr Forbes outlined three levers to hit that target: 

• Massive labour reallocation from low‑productivity farming to higher‑productivity manufacturing and modern services. 
• Planned urbanisation that turns cities into “pleasant, energetic economic dynamos.” 
• World‑scale corporate ambition — not from “five or ten conglomerates” but from thousands of Indian firms prepared to invest in technology, brand and global markets. 

Manufacturing as the 'silver bullet' 

Memani — President of the Confederation of Indian Industry — called manufacturing the “biggest silver bullet” for broad‑based prosperity. “Without far greater value addition at home, per‑capita income will remain too concentrated to propel demand,” he said. 

He pointed to Apple’s rapid scale‑up in India — now employing roughly 150,000 people, most of them women — as proof that integrating into global value chains delivers jobs, technology and rising local content. Replicating that model in sectors such as footwear, aerospace and electronics will require: 

• Selectively courting anchor multinationals and solving their early‑stage bottlenecks on land, labour and logistics. 
• Aggressive ease‑of‑doing‑business reform, especially at state level. A single hospital, he noted, still faces more than 300 approvals. 
• Sharper storytelling abroad to counter outdated perceptions and showcase “Indigo‑style” and “Airtel‑style” success stories. 

A five‑fold jump in private R&D 

For India’s own firms, ambition must translate into laboratories and patents, Dr Forbes stressed. Indian industry spends just 0.3 % of GDP on in‑house R\&D versus a world average of 1.5 %. “Our top ten non‑financial companies plough barely 2 % of profit back into R\&D; in the US, China, Japan and Germany that figure is 30‑plus,” he said, urging a five‑fold increase from business and an eight‑fold jump in public research funding directed to universities rather than stand‑alone government labs. 

What happens next 

Both speakers agreed that capital is not the constraint: domestic market capitalisation has already crossed US $5.5 trillion. The challenge is channeling that capital — and foreign direct investment — into technology‑rich, job‑creating projects. “If we get manufacturing, urbanisation and R&D right,” Memani concluded, “India’s long‑term growth story is phenomenal.”

The Oxford India Forum continues through the weekend with sessions on climate technology, health innovation and cultural diplomacy.