India's fertility rate falls below replacement level even as population hits 1.46 bn: UN report

India’s population has reached 1.46 billion in 2025, overtaking China to become the world’s most populous nation, even as its fertility rate continues to decline, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) State of World Population Report released on Tuesday.

The report projects that India’s population will peak at around 1.7 billion over the next 40 years before starting to shrink. In comparison, China’s population is estimated at 1.41 billion this year. Last year, India’s population stood at 1.44 billion, according to the World Population Prospects 2024 report released by the UN in July.

India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has now fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population across generations. The UNFPA report notes that while the national average reflects progress, stark disparities persist across regions, economic classes, and social groups.

The report identifies a “high fertility and low fertility duality.” States such as Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh continue to have high fertility rates due to poor access to contraception, limited healthcare services, and entrenched gender norms. In contrast, Delhi, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu have sustained below-replacement fertility levels, where urban, educated middle-class couples are delaying or opting out of parenthood due to rising costs and work-life pressures.

Over the decades, India has seen a major decline in fertility, from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to around two today. The National Family Health Survey of 2019–21 recorded a TFR of 2.0 for the first time, signalling a shift below replacement level.

Despite these gains, millions of Indians still face barriers to making informed reproductive choices. “This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation. The answer lies in greater reproductive agency, a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family,” the UNFPA report states.

A UNFPA-YouGov survey of 14,000 people across 14 countries, including India, found that one in three Indian adults experienced unintended pregnancies. Another 30 percent reported being unable to have as many or as few children as they wanted, while 23 percent faced both challenges. Financial constraints were the most cited barrier, followed by job insecurity (21 percent), housing issues (22 percent), and lack of access to reliable childcare (18 percent).