Low-pressure area forming over Bay of Bengal, heavy rain likely in 5 states till Oct 26: IMD

A broad swathe of western and southern India is set to experience heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over the coming week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported on Thursday. The updated forecast, driven by a developing cyclonic circulation over the south Andaman Sea and the southeast Bay of Bengal, signals ongoing and intensifying weather activity in regions including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Telangana. The IMD’s advisory includes warnings for hazardous conditions in coastal and adjacent areas, with alerts for fishermen and potential localised flooding and lightning risk. This development is significant for agriculture, transport, and public safety.

IMD experts indicated that the cyclonic circulation is currently positioned over the south Andaman Sea, extending up to the middle levels of the troposphere over the southeast Bay of Bengal. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is anticipated to form over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal on 24 October 2025.

Thunderstorm activity, including lightning, is expected to be particularly intense in specific areas. The IMD stated, "Thunderstorm with lightning likely over Konkan & Goa, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra during next 5 days and over Gujarat Region during 25th & 26th and Saurashtra & Kutch during 24th -26th October, according to the Met department."

Along with thunderstorms, heavy rainfall is forecast for Tamil Nadu on 23–24 October and again from 26–28 October, with Lakshadweep likely to be affected on 23 October, and Kerala and Mahe from 27–29 October. North Interior Karnataka is also expected to receive substantial rain from 23–25 October.

Telangana is predicted to experience heavy rainfall from 23 to 25 October and again on 29 October. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema are also in line for significant rainfall between 24–26 October and on 29 October. The rainfall could impact road and rail transport, as well as agricultural activities, particularly in areas where water-logged fields may threaten crop health.

Further, the IMD's forecast highlights that South Interior Karnataka may see heavy rainfall on 24 October, and Coastal Karnataka on 25 and 26 October. Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over South Interior Karnataka on 23 October, over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema on 23, 27, and 28 October, and over Kerala, Mahe, and Coastal Karnataka on 23 and 24 October.

According to the IMD, "Fishermen Warning: Fishermen are advised not to venture into Southwest, adjoining central Bay of Bengal and along & off Tamil Nadu - Andhra Pradesh coasts 25 th October onwards, said IMD."

The IMD’s guidance brings a period of heightened alert for multiple states as authorities prepare for continuous rainfall, thunderstorm activity, and the potential impact on livelihoods and infrastructure. Residents and local administrations are urged to stay informed and to take necessary precautions to ensure safety.