Massive anti-incumbency against Pinarayi govt, Shashi Tharoor tops Kerala CM choice: Survey

Kerala appears to be heading toward a major political shake-up ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, with a strong wave of anti-incumbency sweeping across the state, according to the Kerala Vote Vibe Survey 2026.

The survey reveals that 62% of voters are keen to replace their current MLA, signaling a clear discontent with the ruling government. In contrast, only 23% of respondents expressed a desire to retain the existing leadership, reinforcing the growing call for change.

In this shifting political landscape, the Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Congress, is emerging as a key alternative. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is also gaining traction as a potential third front, the findings suggest.

Among possible chief ministerial candidates, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor has emerged as the frontrunner for the UDF with 28.3% of respondents supporting his name. Tharoor, a four-time MP from Thiruvananthapuram, enjoys stronger backing among men (30%) than women (27%), and his popularity is highest among voters aged 55 and above (34.2%), compared to just 20.3% support among the 18–24 age group.

On the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) side, current Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s popularity appears to be waning, with only 17.5% of respondents in favour of seeing him return to the post. Instead, Health Minister KK Shailaja has emerged as the preferred choice among voters, with 24.2% supporting her as the LDF's CM candidate.

Despite these figures, the survey also highlights a leadership vacuum in both alliances. Within the UDF, 27.1% of its own supporters remain undecided about who should be the chief ministerial face. The uncertainty is even greater in the LDF camp, where a significant 41.5% of voters are unsure about their preferred leader.

Interestingly, this public sentiment contrasts with the official position of the CPI(M)—the largest party in the LDF—which reaffirmed Pinarayi Vijayan as its CM face in March this year for the 2026 elections. The growing disconnect between the leadership and the electorate could be a major factor in the upcoming polls.