Prashant Kishor's big prediction for Bihar: 'NDA not coming back, will quit politics if JDU gets over 25 seats'

In a major prediction, Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor has ruled out a return for the NDA in the upcoming Bihar assembly elections. He said Nitish Kumar will not be Chief Minister after November and that he will quit politics if JD(U) wins more than 25 seats. 

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) secured a narrow majority, winning 125 out of 243 seats. Within the NDA, the BJP emerged stronger than its ally, winning 74 seats, while JD(U) saw a significant decline, securing only 43 seats. 

Kishor also dismissed the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign in the state and challenged the BJP to contest all 243 seats if it believes in its strength. He said that while Prime Minister Modi remains the BJP’s biggest leader and is actively campaigning for the NDA, his impact in Bihar is limited.

"Look, Modi ji is the Prime Minister of the country and a big leader. He is the biggest leader of the BJP. Perhaps the most popular leader in the country. So it’s not possible that Modi won’t be a factor. And he is actively campaigning on behalf of the NDA, so of course, he will be a factor," Kishor said in an interview with News24.

"But how much impact that will have — I don't think it will be much. And there are already signs of this. Take the three rallies he has held here — there's no real buzz on the ground. It's not like Modi came, said something, and suddenly there's a wave or excitement among people," he added.

He pointed to the low enthusiasm at the Prime Minister's recent events. "In fact, his second rally in Vikramganj had even less impact than the first one in Madhubani. Watch the video of that speech carefully — the crowd is so dull it seems they don't even know why they're there."

Responding to BJP's recent wins in Maharashtra, Delhi, and Haryana, Kishor said, "Maharashtra is Maharashtra. Bihar is Bihar. In Maharashtra, the BJP has been winning. In Bihar, they have never managed to win on their own. Haryana was a repeat. Defeating Kejriwal in Delhi — fine, I agree. But there's no state where BJP hasn't already won before."

He argued that Bihar remains a challenge the BJP cannot overcome on its own. "Bihar is the one state where the BJP has never won on its own. And they won't win this time either. They're contesting just 100 seats — and to win Bihar, you need 120. So BJP can't form the government on its own," he said. 

"Now you're saying they'll win through an alliance. If BJP is really as popular, as prepared, and as strong as they claim, then try contesting all 243 seats. Let's see what happens," he added.

Kishor declared unequivocally: "The NDA government is absolutely not coming. Take it in writing. And I won't say too much since I myself have a stake in this matter. But you can write down three things for sure: 1) Nitish Kumar will not be Chief Minister after November. Bihar will have a new CM. 2) JD(U) will not win more than 25 seats. If they get more than 25, I'll quit politics. A large section of Bihar wants change. Change is certain. More than 60% of the people want change."

The former poll strategist added that the NDA, RJD, and Congress are all likely to get fewer seats than they did in the previous election. He also dismissed AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi as irrelevant. "Asaduddin Owaisi will have no role — he is irrelevant in Bihar." 

Kishor's Jan Suraaj will contest all 243 seats in Bihar, where assembly polls are expected later this year. 

In the last elections, on the opposition side, RJD became the single largest party with 75 seats, but the Grand Alliance, which included the RJD, Congress (19 seats), and Left parties, fell short with a combined tally of 110 seats. Notably, Owaisi's AIMIM made a surprise entry, winning 5 seats in the Seemanchal region, marking its debut in the Bihar Assembly.