$500 bn promise vs reality: Helios Capital's Samir Arora cites EU, Korea, Taiwan on how deals are packaged

Helios Capital founder Samir Arora on Wednesday sought to cool nerves around the India-US trade deal's headline figure of a $500 billion "buy American" commitment, saying such numbers are typically framed as long-term intentions and not short-term.

"Don't know why people are getting hyper on India having to buy $ 500 billion from US. There are no time commitments, and all countries have signed similar long-term intentions," Arora wrote on X.

The veteran fund manager argued that large dollar figures attached to trade deals are often structured in ways that avoid near-term financial stress. He pointed to how other major economies have handled similar commitments with the Trump administration.

"For example, Korea saying they will invest US$200 billion in cash, but capped at US$20 billion annually to maintain financial stability. Nobody can reasonably expect such big amounts to be invested over a short period anyway," he said. "So just chill and enjoy all the elements falling in place."

To make his point, Arora cited recent trade-related announcements involving the European Union, South Korea and Taiwan. He said as part of a July 2025 framework trade deal to avoid higher tariffs, the EU committed to encouraging $600 billion in investments in the US by 2028, targeting strategic sectors.

"While touted by the US as a major, binding deal, EU officials noted these commitments are largely based on private sector, non-binding intentions."

Similarly, South Korea has committed to a $350 billion investment in the United States, targeting strategic industries, as part of a 2025/2026 deal with the Trump administration to secure lower, 15% reciprocal tariffs on auto and other exports. The investment package, he added, includes $200 billion in direct, phased, and capped cash installments.

The plan involves $350 billion in total investments, featuring a "hybrid" model with $200 billion in cash, capped at $20 billion annually to maintain financial stability, the investor said.

A third example he cited was Taiwan's investment pledge in the US, particularly in advanced sectors. "In January 2026, Taiwan and the U.S. signed a major trade deal, with Taiwanese firms committing to at least $250 billion in direct, long-term investment for US-based semiconductor, AI, and energy infrastructure, alongside an additional $250 billion in potential credit guarantees," Arora wrote.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump, while announcing the India-US trade deal, claimed that New Delhi had committed to higher US purchases. "The Prime Minister also committed to 'BUY AMERICAN,' at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products," he said.

On Trump's $500 billion claim, government sources have indicated that the figure is for a period of five years and will also include the purchase of aircraft and parts. "We will be importing goods worth $50-55 billion, for data centres alone, we will need goods worth $20 billion a year," the source said.