Venezuela crisis unlikely to impact India's oil math

India is likely to remain insulated from the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, officials and analysts believe, underlining that there are no worries in terms of energy security since India’s exposure to Venezuela is very low and it has minimal oil exports from there.

Sources noted that India’s fiscal math is unlikely to be impacted from the US strike on Venezuela and the capture of the Latin American country’s President Nicolás Maduro. “The situation is being monitored, but for now it appears that India will not face any repercussions from it on the crude oil front,” said a source.

India is the third largest oil importer and consumer of crude oil in the world and remains sensitive to any significant changes in crude oil prices, which can have a direct impact on the fiscal and current account deficit as well as inflation.

Between April and November 2025, India has imported 178.1 million tonnes of crude oil and Russia remained the chief supplier and had supplied 60 million tonnes. The US supplied 13 million tonnes to India. India also imported crude oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Nigeria and Kuwait in the period.

A recent analysis by think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) noted that Venezuela holds about 18% of the world’s oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16%), Russia (about 5–6%), or the United States (around 4%). Venezuela alone has more crude oil reserves than the U.S. and Russia combined.

“For India, the Venezuelan disturbance is unlikely to have any material economic or energy impact,” said the analysis by GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava. In FY25, India’s total imports from Venezuela were just $364.5 million, of which crude oil accounted for $255.3 million—an 81.3% drop from $1.4 billion in crude imports in FY24. India’s exports to Venezuela were modest at $95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million.

“Although India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, and Indian firms such as ONGC Videsh held upstream stakes in the Orinoco belt, bilateral engagement has weakened sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions, which forced India to cut oil imports and scale back commercial activity to avoid secondary sanctions. As a result, India’s trade with Venezuela is now small and declining,” it said.

Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at the Bank of Baroda, also noted that things should normalise in a day or two in the markets and it will be business as usual. “Venezuela is not really a significant supplier of oil and is very low down the order. It is less than 1% as of FY25. However, the price paid is one of the lowest and in FY25 was $ 496/tonne as against an average of $ 586/ tonne,” he said on the impact of the crisis on India, adding that imports have turned even less significant subsequently.

“Besides if the story plays out as the US has said, there could be an increase, albeit marginal, in global supplies and prices should come down instead of going up. Besides, India buys at different prices from various countries, and the overall cost should not be different from what it is today. The reaction is knee jerk and should correct in a few sessions,” he elaborated in a report on Monday.

Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst, Choice Broking however, cautioned that the escalation of US-Venezuela tensions has imposed a significant "geopolitical risk premium" on energy markets. “While the immediate effect on global oil supply is limited, the change in control over Venezuela's vast oil reserves poses critical implications for heavy crude pricing and long-term supply forecasts,” he said.