Monsoon rains likely to be normal, little chance of drought: Skymet Weather

The monsoon is likely to be "normal" with little chance of drought and a 5% probability of excess rains, Skymet Weather, India's only private weather forecasting agency, said on Wednesday.

The information comes as a breath of fresh air for the central government, given that it is trying achieve an 8 per cent GDP growth in FY19, and the monsoon rains is key to the success of India's farm sector.

The sector, accounting for 15 per cent of the $2 trillion Indian economy, supports two-thirds of the population, or around 1.3 billion people.

In India, 887 mm of rainfall, with a 4 per cent error margin, represents a normal monsoon, which accounts for about 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall. The kharif crop primarily depends on monsoon rains. Farmers planting paddy, cane, corn, cotton and soybean gain the most during the season, with farmlands lacking proper irrigation facilities.

If the four months between June and September receives 96-104 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), or 50-year average, of 89 cm, the monsoon is considered normal. Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient.

The report also said that there was a 55% probability of normal rains and 20% chance of above-normal rains (between 105-110% of LPA), besides only a 5% chance of excess rain (more than 110% of LPA). It has ruled out drought.

Though the predication will bring relief to the farmers, besides the state and central governments, the weather forecasting agency has said July and August - crucial for a healthy and productive harvest - will see 'below normal' rains.

India's official forecaster, India Meteorological Department, which toes the international weather model, will release its report later this month.

Chances of El Nino

In March, a senior government official had ruled out any possibility of El Nino this year. He had said EL Nino may hit any time after August.  El Nino is warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean area that takes place every few years. The effects are linked to weak monsoon, crop damage, fires and flash floods.