Muhurat trading 2025: What Samvat 2082 holds for Dalal Street; factors & sectors to watch

Indian stock markets are geared up for the Muhurat Trading session on Tuesday, October 21 from 1.30 onwards, including the 15-minute pre-opening session. Dalal Street investors and traders are knocking the doors of Samvat 2082, after both Sensex and Nifty50 delivered a muted 6 per cent return in Samvat 2081.

Indian stock markets will remain closed on October 22 for Balipratipada and trading for the new Hindu calendar will kick off from Thursday, October 23. However, analysts are optimistic for the new year after a muted Samvat 2081. They believe that macro tailwinds on both domestic and global levels bodes well for the Indian equities, with some conditions apply.

Participants believe that the stock market is the slave of earnings but the long-term trend will be dictated by earnings growth. The US-India trade deal may drive some positivity on Dalal Street, the long-term driver will be results posted by India Inc. However, they believe that consumption led sectors may perform well post economic reforms by the government.

The important takeaway from Samvat 2081 is India’s huge underperformance. Even though there are many reasons, including Trump tariffs, for this underperformance, the single major factor is the sharp decline in India’s earnings growth to 5 per cent in FY25 from average 24 per cent during the three years before, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

"The major trend, going forward, will depend on how earnings growth pans out. The fiscal and monetary reforms implemented this year have started showing results. If this expectation materialises, the market will rally in Samvat 2082 compensating for the underperformance of Samvat 2081. In the short run the market may get a leg up from a possible India- US trade deal," says Vijayakumar.

The year went by tested investor patience, with India lagging global peers despite strong domestic fundamentals. However, the stage now appears set for an earnings-led recovery. Growth momentum remains intact, supported by structural reforms, the GST reforms, income tax relief, and an accommodative policy stance, said Amisha Vora, Chairperson and MD at PL Capital.

Valuations are reasonable, earnings downgrades have largely bottomed out, and domestic inflows continue to demonstrate remarkable strength even as foreign investors remain cautious. This creates a favorable setup for Indian equities to outperform in the new Samvat," she added.

Despite global challenges like trade concerns and slowing growth, India remains a macro-stable, liquidity-rich, and policy-backed economy. The year ahead presents investors with a chance to participate in India’s next phase of compounding, fueled by a rebound in corporate earnings and broad-based economic growth.

"As we look ahead to Samvat 2082, the year will be marked by strong earnings growth across selective sectors like auto & auto ancillaries, PSU bank, NFBCs," said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities "We expect the market leaders in these sectors to emerge as the top winners, driven by earnings visibility, structural tailwinds and favorable policy support."

The Indian equity markets are well-positioned to deliver stronger returns, supported by several key tailwinds like a substantial Rs 12 lakh crore tax-free budgetary push, coupled with the anticipated GST 2.0 reforms, is expected to revive consumption and accelerate corporate earnings growth particularly the double-digit growth that has been missing over the past 2–3 quarters, Tapse adds.

While the near-to-medium term trend for domestic equity markets could be volatile, given global economic uncertainty, geo-political tensions and the pending outcome of the US-India tariff settlement, select PSU counters to maintain optimism through Samvat 2082, said Navjeet Sobti, Promoter at Almondz Global Securities.

"We expect PSU banking stocks to stay in limelight in hopes of strong demand for loans. While FII flows in domestic equities have been extremely volatile over the past few months, any positive outcome to the US-India trade deal and likely uptick in corporate earnings should revive overseas investors' interest in local equities," he adds.