'No mention of Congress in 76-page English version': What Kotak says on BJP manifesto

Ahead of the kick start of Lok Sabha elections 2024, Kotak Institutional Equities in a note suggested that the BJP manifesto emphasised on continuation of existing policies, making India a global manufacturing hub and suggesting an adequate social support for the needy. The Congress manifesto, on the other hand, envisaged the creation of jobs through a new economic policy and government-led employment, a legal guarantee for MSPs and cash transfers, education loan waiver and an increase in reservations for the needy.  The first phase of elections will kick off on April 19.

Various recent opinion polls suggest that there are no signs of anti-incumbency and the current government may be re-elected with an even bigger mandate.  The stock market is factoring in a third term for the incumbent government so far, with Antique Stock Broking expecting the Rs 25,000-mark on Nifty by March 2025.

"The election manifestos of the BJP and Congress showcase the visions of the incumbent and the challenger, with the BJP manifesto expectedly stressing its achievements in its past two terms over 2014-24 and the Congress manifesto expectedly highlighting the deficits of the past 10 years and its own achievements in its two terms over 2004-14," Kotak said.

Kotak said the BJP manifesto makes no mention of the Congress in its 76 pages (English version), while the Congress manifesto has 38/55 references to BJP/NDA in its 48 pages (English version), which "possibly highlights the different mindset and position of the two parties—one of an incumbent and the other of a challenger," Kotak said.

BJP manifesto: Modi ki Guarantee

Kotak said the BJP manifesto highlights the incumbent's economic achievements in terms of growth and solid progress in infrastructure development and manufacturing and social accomplishments under the different social welfare programs implemented by it in the past 10 years.

"The BJP manifesto commits to continuing with existing economic policies (Make in India, PLI) and social welfare schemes (including free ration for 800 million people). It specifically stresses on its ambition to establish India as a global manufacturing hub across sectors in order to create jobs," it said.

Congress manifesto: Nyay Patra

The Congress manifesto, Nyay Patra, focuses on a new economic policy (Nav Sankalp Economic Policy) to create jobs and reforms of industrial and labour laws to achieve its vision of full employment and greater productivity.

It focuses on job creation through the facilitation of the private sector and reservation in the government sector—50 per cent reservation of central government jobs for women, one-third reservation for women in state assemblies and Lok Sabha, constitutional amendment to raise the 50 per cent cap on reservations for SC, ST and OBC and larger role of the government in economic and social areas—higher wages under NREGA at Rs400/day, launch of a Mahalakshmi Scheme to provide Re 0.1 million per year to every poor Indian family as an unconditional cash transfer among others.

Nifty profits

For now, Nifty is trading at 22.4 times FY2024 EPS and 20.4 times FY2025 EPS. Kotak said it expect net profits of the Nifty-50 Index to grow 19.9 per cent in FY2024 and 9.6 per cent in FY2025.