2 Adani stocks downgraded as shares run too fast too soon; target prices

Two Adani stocks namely Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) and Adani Energy Solutions Ltd (AESL) have seen rating downsides, with a couple of analysts no more assigning 'Buy' ratings on them, despite decent March quarter results, as they believe these Adani stocks have rallied too fast too soon and may be capturing in the growth prospects. ICICI Securities downgraded Adani Green Energy and Adani Energy Solutions to 'Add' from 'Buy', but revised upward its target prices, suggesting a modest 6 per cent upside for each of the stock. A few other brokerages also downgraded the two Adani group stocks.

Adani Green Energy Ltd rating and target prices
In the case of Adani Green, the Adani group firm reported Ebitda of about Rs 2,800 crore, up 20 per cent YoY, for Q4, ahead of ICICI Securities' estimate of Rs 2,700 crore. ICICI Securities said FY26 was impacted by curtailment and weak merchant realisations for AGEL, resulting in an estimated Rs 1,300–1,500 crore Ebitda loss. It said Adani Green's merchant exposure rose to 43 per cent against 27 per cent YoY, whereas grid availability for solar dropped from 100 per cent to 87 per cent.

"The company added 5GW in FY26 (2GW in Q4), taking total capacity to 19.3GW. A significant portion of 5.3GW infirm capacity is expected to transition to PPAs by end-FY27, along with new capacity addition planned of~5GW in FY27 already having a PPA tie-up. They also plan to deploy 10GWh of battery in FY27. We expect improved realisation," it said while suggesting a target of Rs 1,315 for the stock. The downward rating was assigned following a sharp rally in the past month, it said.

JM Financial also cut its rating on AGEL to 'ADD' from 'Buy'. It said AGEL may deliver an Ebitda CAGR of 34 per cent-plus over FY26–28E, factoring in addition of about 5GW each in FY27E and FY28E, which has upside potential from storage capacity addition.

"The stock has run up over 40 per cent in the last one month and is trading at 18 times EV/Ebitda. So, we change our rating to ADD (from BUY) with a revised target of Rs 1,299 (from Rs 1,204) based on unchanged 14x EV/EBITDA FY28E (run rate)," JM Financial said.

Emkay Global, meanwhile, suggested a target of Rs 1,500 on the stock with a 'Buy' rating. This  brokerage has kept its FY27-28 earnings largely unchanged but roll forwarded valuation estimates to March 2027, increasing its target price on the stock by 11 per cent to Rs 1,500 from Rs 1,350 earlier. The target suggested 20 per cent upside potential for the stock.

Adani Energy Solutions rating and target prices
ICICI Securities said Adani Energy Solutions had a good FY26, in terms of both order book (OB) execution and accumulating new orders. It won transmission orders worth over Rs 20,000 crore, taking its transmission order book to Rs 71,800 crore against Rs 59,900 crore YoY.

"With a growing asset base, it reported healthy operating Ebitda of Rs 7,400 crore (13 per cent YoY) in FY26, while its adjusted profit grew 32 per cent in FY26 to Rs 2,400 crore. AESL is targeting to take FY27 capitalisation a step higher to Rs 21,000 crore, largely through transmission and smart meter segments. Transmission and smart meter pipeline remain strong and we expect AESL to maintain its market share in new bids,"  ICICI Securities said.

Despite healthy growth outlook, it downgraded the Adani Energy stock to 'ADD', given the recent run-up in its stock price. ICICI Securities suggested a target of Rs 1,500 on the AESL stock.

Elara has revised its rating to 'Accumulate' from 'Buy' as the stock has runup by 47 per cent in the past three months. "We raise our target to Rs 1,452 from Rs 1,169 on robust orderbook, rising market share, and stronger capitalization guidance. We introduce FY29E earnings," it said.

JM Financial said AESL shares have rallied 44 per cent-plus in just one month and are trading at 18 times EV/Ebitda and 5.3 times P/B, we are downgrading it to ADD (from BUY) with a revised target of Rs 1,513 (earlier Rs 1,199)," it said.